摘 要
中国经济增长模式的转变是当前学术界和政策制定者关注的重要议题。在传统增长模式面临资源环境约束加剧、人口红利逐渐消失以及全球市场需求变化的背景下，研究经济增长模式的转型及其影响因素具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本研究旨在探讨中国从要素驱动型向效率驱动型及创新驱动型增长模式转变的过程，并分析其关键影响因素。通过构建包含技术进步、产业结构优化、人力资本积累和制度创新等多维度指标的综合评价体系，结合1990年至2020年的省级面板数据，运用动态面板模型（GMM）进行实证分析。研究结果表明，技术进步和人力资本积累对经济增长模式转变具有显著的正向推动作用，而制度环境的改善则进一步强化了这一过程。此外，区域间差异性分析显示，东部地区由于较高的技术基础和开放水平，在增长模式转型中表现更为突出，而中西部地区则受限于资源禀赋和技术能力，转型进程相对滞后。本研究的创新点在于引入动态视角考察增长模式转变的长期趋势，并通过分区域对比揭示了不同发展阶段下影响机制的异质性特征。研究结论为制定差异化区域政策和深化供给侧结构性改革提供了重要参考，同时强调了加强技术创新能力和提升人力资本质量在推动经济高质量发展中的核心地位。
关键词：经济增长模式转变；技术进步；人力资本积累；制度环境；区域差异性
Abstract
The transformation of China's economic growth model has become a critical issue of concern for both academics and policymakers. Against the backdrop of intensified resource and environmental constraints, the fading demographic dividend, and shifting global market demands, studying the transition of the economic growth model and its influencing factors holds significant theoretical and practical importance. This study aims to explore the process by which China shifts from a factor-driven growth model to one driven by efficiency and innovation, while analyzing its key determinants. By constructing a comprehensive evaluation system that incorporates multi-dimensional indicators such as technological progress, industrial structure optimization, human capital accumulation, and institutional innovation, combined with provincial panel data from 1990 to 2020, a dynamic panel model (GMM) is employed for empirical analysis. The results indicate that technological progress and human capital accumulation play a significantly positive role in promoting the transformation of the economic growth model, while improvements in the institutional environment further reinforce this process. Moreover, regional disparity analysis reveals that eastern regions, benefiting from a higher level of technological foundation and openness, perform more prominently in the transition, whereas central and western regions, constrained by resource endowments and technological capabilities, lag behind in their transformation progress. The novelty of this study lies in introducing a dynamic perspective to examine the long-term trend of the growth model transformation and revealing the heterogeneous characteristics of influencing mechanisms across different stages of development through regional comparisons. The findings provide crucial references for formulating differentiated regional policies and deepening supply-side structural reforms, while emphasizing the core role of enhancing technological innovation capabilities and improving human capital quality in driving high-quality economic development.
Keywords: Economic Growth Pattern Transformation; Technological Progress; Human Capital Accumulation; Institutional Environment; Regional Differences
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）研究背景与意义 1
（二）国内外研究现状综述 1
（三）研究方法与技术路线 2
二、中国经济增长模式的历史演进 2
（一）工业化初期的增长特征 2
（二）改革开放后的转变路径 3
（三）新时代下的发展模式调整 3
（四）历史演进中的关键节点分析 4
（五）演进规律与未来趋势 4
三、中国经济增长模式转变的核心驱动因素 5
（一）技术创新对增长模式的影响 5
（二）结构调整在模式转变中的作用 5
（三）政策导向对经济增长的引导 6
（四）全球化背景下的外部动力分析 6
（五）驱动因素的综合评估 7
四、中国经济增长模式转变的影响效应分析 7
（一）对宏观经济稳定性的长期影响 7
（二）对产业结构优化的推动作用 8
（三）对区域经济协调发展的促进效果 8
（四）对社会福利水平提升的贡献分析 9
（五）影响效应的实证检验与评价 9
结论 10
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
