摘 要
随着数字经济的快速发展，数字人民币（e-CNY）作为法定数字货币的典型代表，正在深刻改变传统货币政策的实施机制与传导路径。本研究以数字人民币对传统货币政策的影响为切入点，旨在探讨其带来的挑战与机遇，并提出相应的政策建议。研究采用理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法，首先构建了数字人民币影响货币政策传导的理论框架，随后基于中国宏观经济数据，运用动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE）模拟了数字人民币发行对货币供应、利率传导及信贷分配等关键环节的作用效果。结果显示，数字人民币的推广可能削弱商业银行的信用创造能力，但同时显著提升了央行调控的精准性和直达性，特别是在区域经济平衡发展和结构性货币政策工具的应用方面表现出独特优势。此外，研究发现数字人民币能够降低现金管理成本，优化支付体系效率，从而为货币政策目标的实现提供新的技术支撑。本研究的主要创新点在于首次将数字人民币纳入DSGE模型进行量化分析，并从货币流通速度、支付行为变化等微观层面揭示其对宏观政策的潜在影响。研究结论表明，数字人民币既是传统货币政策的挑战者，也是其优化升级的重要契机。未来应通过完善相关法律法规、加强金融基础设施建设以及深化国际合作，充分发挥数字人民币在现代货币政策框架中的积极作用。
关键词：数字人民币；货币政策传导；DSGE模型；信用创造能力；支付体系效率
Abstract
With the rapid development of the digital economy, digital currency of the central bank (CBDC), represented by Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) or e-CNY, is profoundly transforming the implementation mechanisms and transmission channels of traditional monetary policy. This study focuses on the impact of digital renminbi on conventional monetary policy, aiming to explore the associated challenges and opportunities while proposing relevant policy recommendations. By integrating theoretical analysis with empirical research, the study first constructs a theoretical fr amework for how digital renminbi influences the transmission of monetary policy. Subsequently, based on China’s macroeconomic data, it employs a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to simulate the effects of issuing digital renminbi on key aspects such as money supply, interest rate transmission, and credit allocation. The results indicate that the promotion of digital renminbi may weaken commercial banks’ ability to create credit but significantly enhances the precision and directness of central bank regulation, particularly in promoting regional economic balance and applying structural monetary policy tools, where it demonstrates unique advantages. Additionally, the study finds that digital renminbi can reduce cash management costs and improve the efficiency of payment systems, thereby providing new technological support for achieving monetary policy ob jectives. A major innovation of this study lies in its pioneering inclusion of digital renminbi within the DSGE model for quantitative analysis, revealing its potential impacts on macroeconomic policies from micro-level perspectives such as changes in the velocity of money circulation and payment behaviors. The conclusions suggest that digital renminbi not only poses challenges to traditional monetary policy but also represents a significant opportunity for its optimization and upgrading. Looking ahead, it is essential to enhance related legal fr ameworks, strengthen financial infrastructure, and deepen international cooperation to fully leverage the positive role of digital renminbi in modern monetary policy fr ameworks.
Keywords: Digital Currency; Monetary Policy Transmission; Dsge Model; Credit Creation Ability; Payment System Efficiency
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）数字人民币与货币政策的研究背景 1
（二）研究数字人民币对传统货币政策的意义 1
（三）国内外研究现状综述 1
（四）本文研究方法与创新点 2
二、数字人民币对货币政策传导机制的影响 2
（一）货币政策传导的传统路径分析 2
（二）数字人民币对利率传导机制的挑战 3
（三）数字人民币对信贷传导机制的机遇 3
（四）数字人民币对资产价格传导的影响 4
（五）新传导机制下的政策调整建议 4
三、数字人民币对货币供应与需求的重塑 5
（一）货币供应理论的基本框架 5
（二）数字人民币对货币供应量的潜在影响 5
（三）数字人民币对货币需求行为的改变 6
（四）数字人民币在流动性管理中的作用 6
（五）政策工具适应性调整的方向 7
四、数字人民币对货币政策独立性与国际化的双重影响 7
（一）数字人民币对货币政策独立性的挑战 7
（二）数字人民币推动货币国际化的新路径 8
（三）跨境支付体系中的数字人民币角色 8
（四）数字人民币对国际资本流动的影响 9
（五）平衡国内政策目标与国际竞争的战略选择 9
结论 10
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
