摘 要
房价变动作为宏观经济运行中的关键变量，对经济增长的稳定性具有深远影响。本研究基于中国2000年至2021年的省级面板数据，结合动态面板模型（System GMM）与非参数估计方法，深入探讨了房价波动对经济增长稳定性的作用机制及其异质性特征。研究发现，房价的快速上涨或剧烈下跌均会对经济增长的稳定性产生显著负面冲击，其主要传导渠道包括居民消费挤出效应、企业投资抑制效应以及金融风险的累积效应。进一步分析表明，不同区域间的影响存在显著差异，东部地区由于金融市场发展程度较高，房价波动对经济稳定性的冲击相对较小，而中西部地区则表现出更大的脆弱性。此外，本研究首次引入政策干预变量，发现有效的房地产调控政策能够显著缓解房价波动对经济增长稳定性的负面影响。这一结论为理解房价变动的宏观经济效应提供了新的视角，并为制定精准化、差异化的房地产调控政策提供了理论依据和实证支持。本研究的主要创新点在于综合运用动态建模与非参数分析方法，揭示了房价波动影响经济稳定性的非线性特征及其区域异质性，同时强调了政策干预在平抑房价波动中的重要作用，从而丰富了相关领域的学术研究并为政策实践提供了重要参考。
关键词：房价波动；经济增长稳定性；动态面板模型；区域异质性；政策干预
Abstract
House price changes, as a key variable in macroeconomic operations, have profound implications for the stability of economic growth. This study investigates the mechanisms and heterogeneous characteristics of house price fluctuations on economic growth stability using provincial panel data from China between 2000 and 2021, combined with dynamic panel models (System GMM) and nonparametric estimation methods. The findings indicate that both rapid increases and sharp declines in house prices significantly negatively impact the stability of economic growth, primarily through channels such as the crowding-out effect on household consumption, the inhibitory effect on corporate investment, and the accumulation of financial risks. Further analysis reveals significant regional differences in these impacts, with eastern regions exhibiting relatively smaller shocks to economic stability due to their more developed financial markets, while central and western regions demonstrate greater vulnerability. Additionally, this study introduces policy intervention variables for the first time, revealing that effective real estate regulatory policies can significantly mitigate the adverse effects of house price fluctuations on the stability of economic growth. This conclusion provides a new perspective on understanding the macroeconomic effects of house price changes and offers theoretical foundations and empirical support for formulating precise and differentiated real estate regulatory policies. The primary innovation of this study lies in its integrated use of dynamic modeling and nonparametric analytical methods to uncover the nonlinear features and regional heterogeneity of how house price fluctuations affect economic stability, while emphasizing the critical role of policy interventions in stabilizing house price movements. These contributions enrich academic research in this field and provide valuable references for policy implementation.
Keywords: House Price Fluctuation; Economic Growth Stability; Dynamic Panel Model; Regional Heterogeneity; Policy Intervention
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）房价变动与经济增长稳定性的研究背景 1
（二）研究房价变动对经济增长稳定性冲击的意义 1
（三）国内外研究现状综述 1
（四）本文研究方法与技术路线 2
二、房价变动的经济影响机制分析 2
（一）房价变动的基本理论框架 2
（二）房价波动对消费行为的影响 3
（三）房价波动对投资活动的作用 3
（四）房价变动对金融体系的冲击 4
三、房价变动对经济增长稳定性的影响实证研究 4
（一）数据来源与变量选择 4
（二）模型构建与方法说明 5
（三）实证结果分析 5
（四）区域差异性分析 6
（五）稳定性检验与稳健性分析 6
四、政策应对与经济增长稳定性的提升路径 7
（一）宏观调控政策对房价波动的调节作用 7
（二）房地产市场健康发展对经济稳定的贡献 7
（三）结构性改革在稳定经济增长中的角色 8
（四）国际经验借鉴与启示 8
（五）政策建议与实施路径 8
结论 9
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
