摘 要
在全球经济一体化不断深化的背景下，贸易保护主义与自由贸易政策的取舍成为各国政府和学术界关注的核心议题之一，本研究旨在系统比较两种政策模式对经济增长、资源配置效率及社会福利水平的影响，以期为政策制定者提供理论支持与实践参考。研究基于新古典经济学框架，结合动态一般均衡模型与实证分析方法，选取1990年至2020年间全球主要经济体的贸易数据进行量化评估，并通过构建反事实情景分析贸易保护主义与自由贸易在不同经济环境下的表现差异。结果表明，自由贸易总体上能够显著提升资源配置效率，促进技术扩散与创新，从而推动长期经济增长；而贸易保护主义虽然可能在短期内保护特定产业免受外部竞争冲击，但其负面效应包括资源错配、消费者剩余减少以及全球价值链协作效率下降等问题不容忽视。此外，研究发现政策效果具有显著的异质性特征，具体表现为发展中国家在实施自由贸易时面临更大的结构调整成本，而发达国家则更易从贸易保护中获得短期利益。本研究的创新点在于首次将动态调整成本纳入模型分析，并通过跨国面板数据分析验证了政策效应的非对称性特征。这一发现不仅丰富了国际贸易理论的研究视角，也为各国根据自身发展阶段选择适宜的贸易政策提供了重要依据。最终结论强调，尽管自由贸易是实现全球经济可持续发展的最优路径，但在实际操作中需充分考虑各国的结构性差异与过渡期成本，以确保政策转型的平稳性和包容性。
关键词：自由贸易；贸易保护主义；资源配置效率；动态调整成本；政策异质性
Abstract:
In the context of deepening global economic integration, the choice between trade protectionism and free trade policies has become one of the core issues of concern for governments and academia. This study aims to systematically compare the impacts of these two policy models on economic growth, resource allocation efficiency, and social welfare levels, thereby providing theoretical support and practical references for policymakers. Based on the fr amework of neoclassical economics, this research integrates dynamic general equilibrium models with empirical analysis methods, selecting trade data from major global economies between 1990 and 2020 for quantitative evaluation. Counterfactual scenario analysis is employed to examine the performance differences of trade protectionism and free trade under varying economic conditions. The results indicate that free trade generally enhances resource allocation efficiency, promotes technology diffusion and innovation, and thereby drives long-term economic growth. In contrast, while trade protectionism may shield specific industries from external competition in the short term, its adverse effects, including resource misallocation, reduced consumer surplus, and decreased efficiency in global value chain collaboration, cannot be overlooked. Additionally, the study finds that policy effects exhibit significant heterogeneity, with developing countries facing greater structural adjustment costs when implementing free trade, whereas developed countries are more likely to gain short-term benefits from trade protectionism. A key innovation of this study lies in incorporating dynamic adjustment costs into the model analysis and validating the asymmetric characteristics of policy effects through cross-country panel data analysis. This finding not only enriches the research perspective of international trade theory but also provides crucial evidence for countries to select appropriate trade policies based on their respective stages of development. The final conclusion emphasizes that, despite free trade being the optimal path for achieving sustainable global economic development, the structural differences and transition costs of individual countries must be fully considered in practice to ensure the smoothness and inclusiveness of policy transformation.
Keywords: Free Trade; Trade Protectionism; Resource Allocation Efficiency; Dynamic Adjustment Cost; Policy Heterogeneity
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）贸易保护主义与自由贸易的研究背景 1
（二）比较研究的理论与现实意义 1
（三）当前研究现状与不足分析 2
（四）本文研究方法与技术路线 2
二、贸易政策对经济增长的影响比较 2
（一）经济增长的衡量指标与方法 2
（二）贸易保护主义对经济增长的作用机制 3
（三）自由贸易对经济增长的促进效应 3
（四）两种政策在经济增长中的实证对比 4
（五）经济增长视角下的政策选择 4
三、贸易政策对产业竞争力的影响比较 5
（一）产业竞争力的定义与评估框架 5
（二）贸易保护主义对产业发展的短期影响 5
（三）自由贸易对产业竞争力的长期提升作用 6
（四）不同行业在两种政策下的表现差异 6
（五）产业竞争力视角下的政策效果评估 7
四、贸易政策对社会福利的影响比较 7
（一）社会福利的构成与测量方法 7
（二）贸易保护主义对消费者和生产者的影响 8
（三）自由贸易对资源分配效率的优化作用 8
（四）政策实施的社会成本与收益分析 9
（五）社会福利最大化的目标与政策建议 9
结论 10
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
