摘 要
地方政府专项债作为积极财政政策的重要工具，在当前经济下行压力加大的背景下，其对区域经济的拉动效应备受关注本研究以2015年至2022年间中国31个省市区的面板数据为样本，基于动态面板模型和系统广义矩估计方法，实证分析了地方政府专项债对区域经济增长的短期与长期影响研究发现，地方政府专项债在短期内能够显著促进地区生产总值的增长，尤其是在基础设施建设领域表现出较强的乘数效应然而，这种拉动作用存在区域差异，东部地区的效应更为明显，而中西部地区的效应相对有限从长期来看，专项债的使用效率和结构优化程度直接影响其对经济的可持续贡献进一步分析表明，债务资金投向高附加值产业、配套政策支持以及地方治理能力的提升是增强专项债经济效应的关键因素本研究的创新点在于首次引入动态面板模型考察专项债的时滞效应，并结合区域异质性进行深入探讨研究结果为合理配置专项债资源、优化资金使用方向提供了理论依据，同时强调了加强地方政府债务管理、提高资金使用效率的重要性这对于推动区域经济高质量发展具有重要的政策启示意义
关键词：地方政府专项债；区域经济增长；动态面板模型；债务使用效率；区域异质性
Abstract
Local government special bonds, as a critical instrument of proactive fiscal policy, have drawn significant attention regarding their stimulating effects on regional economies, especially under the current backdrop of increasing economic downward pressure. This study employs panel data from 31 provincial-level regions in China between 2015 and 2022, utilizing a dynamic panel model and the system generalized method of moments (GMM) to empirically analyze the short-term and long-term impacts of local government special bonds on regional economic growth. The findings indicate that these bonds significantly promote the growth of regional gross domestic product (GDP) in the short term, particularly demonstrating a strong multiplier effect in infrastructure construction. However, this stimulating effect varies across regions, with more pronounced impacts observed in eastern areas compared to relatively limited effects in central and western regions. In the long term, the efficiency of special bond utilization and the degree of structural optimization directly influence their sustainable contribution to economic development. Further analysis reveals that directing debt funds toward high-value-added industries, supporting policies, and enhancing local governance capabilities are key factors in strengthening the economic effects of special bonds. The innovation of this study lies in its first-time introduction of a dynamic panel model to examine the lagged effects of special bonds, combined with an in-depth exploration of regional heterogeneity. The results provide theoretical support for the rational allocation of special bond resources and the optimization of fund usage directions, while also emphasizing the importance of strengthening local government debt management and improving fund utilization efficiency. These insights offer important policy implications for promoting high-quality regional economic development.
Keywords: Local Government Special Bonds; Regional Economic Growth; Dynamic Panel Model; Debt Usage Efficiency; Regional Heterogeneity
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）地方政府专项债的政策背景 1
（二）区域经济拉动效应的研究意义 1
（三）国内外研究现状综述 1
（四）本文研究方法与创新点 2
二、专项债对区域经济增长的影响机制 2
（一）专项债的定义与分类 2
（二）资本形成对经济增长的作用 3
（三）基础设施投资的乘数效应 3
（四）产业结构优化的路径分析 4
（五）区域经济发展的动态模型 4
三、实证研究设计与数据处理 5
（一）研究假设的提出 5
（二）数据来源与样本选择 5
（三）指标体系构建与变量选取 6
（四）计量模型的选择与设定 6
（五）数据预处理与稳健性检验 7
四、实证结果分析与政策建议 7
（一）专项债对数据模型实证分析 7
（二）对就业水平影响的定量分析 8
（三）对居民消费的间接拉动效应 8
（四）不同区域间的异质性表现 9
（五）政策建议与未来发展方向 9
结论 10
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
