摘 要
在全球经济周期性波动的背景下，财政刺激政策作为应对经济衰退的重要工具，其有效性和适用性一直是学术界和政策制定者关注的核心议题。本研究旨在系统分析财政刺激政策在经济衰退中的作用机制及其实际效果，通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE），结合2008年全球金融危机以来主要经济体的实际数据，评估不同类型的财政刺激措施对经济增长、就业水平和通胀率的影响。研究采用面板数据分析方法，并引入政策时滞效应和结构性差异变量，以提高模型的解释力和预测能力。结果显示，财政刺激政策在短期内能够显著提振经济活动，特别是在经济衰退初期，政府支出乘数效应尤为明显；然而，长期实施可能导致债务负担加重和边际效益递减。此外，研究发现不同类型财政政策的效果存在显著差异，其中以基础设施投资为代表的公共支出比税收减免更具持续性影响。本研究的创新点在于首次将政策时滞纳入量化分析框架，并通过跨国对比揭示了财政刺激政策效果的异质性特征。这一成果为政策制定者提供了重要参考，即在设计财政刺激方案时需综合考虑经济周期阶段、政策实施时机及结构优化问题，从而实现短期复苏与长期可持续发展的平衡目标。
关键词：财政刺激政策；动态随机一般均衡模型；政策时滞效应；政府支出乘数；基础设施投资
Abstract
In the context of global economic cyclical fluctuations, fiscal stimulus policies have been a critical tool for addressing economic recessions, with their effectiveness and applicability remaining a central issue of concern for both academia and policymakers. This study aims to systematically analyze the mechanisms and actual effects of fiscal stimulus policies during economic recessions by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and incorporating real data from major economies since the 2008 global financial crisis to evaluate the impacts of different types of fiscal stimulus measures on economic growth, employment levels, and inflation rates. The research employs panel data analysis methods and introduces variables reflecting policy lag effects and structural differences to enhance the explanatory power and predictive capability of the model. The findings indicate that fiscal stimulus policies can significantly boost economic activities in the short term, particularly during the early stages of an economic recession, where the government expenditure multiplier effect is especially pronounced; however, prolonged implementation may lead to increased debt burdens and diminishing marginal benefits. Moreover, the study reveals significant differences in the effectiveness of various types of fiscal policies, with public expenditures, such as infrastructure investments, demonstrating more sustained impacts compared to tax cuts. A key innovation of this research lies in its incorporation of policy lags into the quantitative analysis fr amework and its cross-country comparisons, which uncover the heterogeneous characteristics of fiscal stimulus policy effects. These results provide crucial references for policymakers, emphasizing the need to comprehensively consider the phase of the economic cycle, the timing of policy implementation, and structural optimization issues when designing fiscal stimulus packages, thereby achieving a balance between short-term recovery and long-term sustainable development.
Keywords: Fiscal Stimulus Policy; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model; Policy Lag Effect; Government Expenditure Multiplier; Infrastructure Investment
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）财政刺激政策研究的背景与意义 1
（二）国内外研究现状综述 1
（三）本文研究方法与创新点 2
二、财政刺激政策的理论基础 2
（一）宏观经济理论中的财政政策作用 2
（二）财政刺激政策的核心机制分析 3
（三）不同类型财政刺激政策的特点比较 3
（四）经济衰退中财政政策的有效性争议 4
三、财政刺激政策的历史实践分析 4
（一）全球经济衰退中的典型财政刺激案例 4
（二）主要经济体财政刺激政策的效果评估 5
（三）历史经验对当前政策设计的启示 5
（四）财政刺激政策在不同阶段的作用差异 6
四、财政刺激政策的有效性实证研究 7
（一）实证研究框架与数据选择 7
（二）财政支出对经济增长的短期影响分析 7
（三）税收政策对经济复苏的长期效应评估 8
（四）政策有效性的影响因素及其调节作用 8
结论 9
参考文献 10
致 谢 11
