气候变化对冬小麦播种期的影响 -农学专业

摘要

气候变化对冬小麦播种期的影响日益显著，本研究基于1980 - 2020年气象数据与冬小麦种植区实地调查资料，旨在探讨气候变化背景下我国主要冬小麦产区播种期的变化规律及其影响机制。通过收集整理各主产省气象站点的温度、降水等要素数据，结合冬小麦生育期观测记录，运用统计分析和模型模拟方法，系统分析了近40年间气温升高、降水模式改变等因素对冬小麦适宜播种期的影响。研究发现，随着全球变暖加剧，北方冬麦区平均气温呈上升趋势，导致传统播种窗口期提前约5 - 7天；同时，降水分布不均使得部分地区出现干旱风险增加，影响播种质量。创新性地引入作物生长模型与气候预测模型耦合技术，定量评估未来不同情景下播种期变化趋势，为优化农业种植制度提供科学依据。研究表明，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下，至2050年冬小麦最佳播种期将分别提前8 - 12天，建议适时调整播种策略以适应气候变化，确保粮食安全。该研究不仅揭示了气候变化对冬小麦播种期的具体影响机制，还为制定应对气候变化的农业政策提供了重要参考。

关键词：气候变化；冬小麦播种期；气温升高

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOWING TIME OF WINTER WHEAT

ABSTRACT

The effects of climate change on the sowing date of winter wheat are increasingly significant. Based on the meteorological data and field survey data of winter wheat growing areas during 1980-2020, this study aims to explore the change regularity and influence mechanism of sowing date in major winter wheat producing areas in China under the background of climate change. By collecting and sorting out the temperature and precipitation data of meteorological stations in major provinces, combining with the observation records of winter wheat growth period, using statistical analysis and model simulation methods, the effects of temperature rise and precipitation pattern change on the suitable sowing time of winter wheat in recent 40 years were systematically analyzed. The results showed that with the intensification of global warming, the average temperature in the northern winter wheat region was on the rise, which led to the advance of the traditional sowing window by about 5-7 days. At the same time, the uneven distribution of precipitation increases the risk of drought in some areas and affects the quality of seeding. The coupling technology of crop growth model and climate prediction model was innovatively introduced to quantitatively evaluate the change trend of sowing time under different scenarios in the future, providing scientific basis for optimizing agricultural planting system. The study shows that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, the optimal sowing time of winter wheat by 2050 will be advanced by 8-12 days, respectively, suggesting timely adjustment of sowing strategies to adapt to climate change and ensure food security. This study not only reveals the specific mechanism of climate change on the winter wheat planting date, but also provides an important reference for formulating agricultural policies to cope with climate change.

KEY WORDS：Climate change; Winter wheat sowing time; Temperature rise

摘要 I

ABSTRACT II

第1章绪论 2

1.1 研究背景及意义 2

1.2 国内外研究现状综述 2

第2章气温变化对冬小麦播种期的影响 3

2.1 平均气温升高对播种期的影响 3

2.2 极端温度事件的干扰效应 3

2.3 温度变化与播种期调整策略 3

第3章降水模式改变对冬小麦播种期的影响 5

3.1 降水量变化趋势分析 5