气候变化对玉米产量及其稳定性的影响 -农学专业

摘要

本研究聚焦于气候变化对玉米产量及其稳定性的影响，旨在揭示气候因子与玉米生产之间的复杂关系。基于1980-2020年中国主要玉米产区的气象数据和农业统计资料，采用多元回归分析、时间序列分析和空间自相关分析等方法，系统评估了温度、降水等关键气候要素对玉米产量及其年际波动的影响机制。研究发现，气温升高显著降低了玉米单产，每升高1℃导致产量下降约5.8%，而降水量的时空分布不均进一步加剧了产量的不稳定性。创新性地构建了气候-产量响应模型，首次量化了极端天气事件对玉米生产系统的累积效应。结果表明，干旱和洪涝灾害频发使玉米产量变异系数增加了23.6%，严重威胁粮食安全。研究还发现不同区域对气候变化的响应存在显著差异，其中东北地区表现出较强的适应能力，而黄淮海地区则更为脆弱。基于此，提出了针对性的适应性管理策略，包括优化种植结构、改良品种特性和完善灌溉设施等。本研究为制定气候变化背景下的粮食安全保障政策提供了科学依据，对促进农业可持续发展具有重要参考价值。

关键词：气候变化；玉米产量；气候因子；产量稳定性

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MAIZE YIELD AND STABILITY

ABSTRACT

This study focuses on the effects of climate change on maize yield and its stability, aiming to reveal the complex relationship between climate factors and maize production. Based on the meteorological data and agricultural statistics of major maize producing areas in China from 1980 to 2020, the effects of temperature, precipitation and other key climatic factors on maize yield and its interannual fluctuation were systematically evaluated by using multiple regression analysis, time series analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis. It was found that the increase of temperature significantly decreased the yield per unit area of maize, and the yield decreased by about 5.8% for every increase of 1℃, while the uneven distribution of precipitation further aggravated the instability of yield. A climate-yield response model was developed to quantify the cumulative effects of extreme weather events on corn production systems for the first time. The results showed that frequent drought and flood disasters increased the coefficient of variation of maize yield by 23.6%, which seriously threatened food security. The study also found that there are significant differences in the response of different regions to climate change, with the northeast region showing strong adaptability, while the Huang-Huai-hai region is more vulnerable. Based on this, adaptive management strategies were proposed, including optimizing planting structure, improving variety characteristics and improving irrigation facilities. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating food security policies under the background of climate change, and has important reference value for promoting sustainable agricultural development.

KEY WORDS：Climate change; Maize yield; Climatic factors; Yield stability

摘要 I

ABSTRACT II

第1章绪论 1

1.1 研究背景及意义 1

1.2 玉米产量稳定性研究的现实意义 1

1.3 国内外研究现状与文献综述 2

第2章气候变化对玉米产量的直接影响机制 3

2.1 温度变化对玉米生长周期的影响 3

2.2 降水模式改变对玉米产量的作用 3

2.3 极端天气事件对玉米生产的冲击 4

第3章气候变化背景下玉米产量稳定性分析 5