摘 要
城市轨道交通作为现代城市基础设施的重要组成部分，其建设规模和投资强度持续增长，然而造价超支问题已成为制约行业可持续发展的关键挑战。本研究以城市轨道交通项目造价超支为切入点，旨在深入剖析超支原因并提出针对性的优化对策。通过文献综述、案例分析及实证研究相结合的方法，系统梳理了国内外相关研究成果，并选取典型城市轨道交通项目进行定量与定性分析。研究发现，造价超支的主要原因包括前期规划不足、设计变更频繁、施工管理不善以及外部环境变化等多方面因素。基于此，本文构建了一套综合考虑技术、经济和管理维度的造价控制体系，并提出了强化前期决策科学性、优化设计管理流程、提升施工精细化水平以及完善风险防控机制的具体措施。本研究的创新点在于将全生命周期理念融入造价管理实践，同时结合大数据技术探索动态成本监控方法，为行业提供了理论支持与实践指导。研究结果表明，通过系统性优化和技术创新，可显著降低造价超支概率，提高项目经济效益与社会效益，从而为城市轨道交通行业的高质量发展提供重要参考。
关键词：城市轨道交通；造价超支；全生命周期管理；成本控制体系；大数据技术
ABSTRACT
Urban rail transit, as a critical component of modern urban infrastructure, has witnessed continuous growth in construction scale and investment intensity. However, cost overruns have emerged as a key challenge constraining the sustainable development of the industry. This study focuses on cost overruns in urban rail transit projects, aiming to thoroughly analyze the causes and propose targeted optimization strategies. By integrating literature review, case analysis, and empirical research, the study systematically examines relevant research achievements both domestically and internationally, while selecting representative urban rail transit projects for quantitative and qualitative analysis. The findings indicate that the primary causes of cost overruns encompass insufficient前期 planning, frequent design changes, inadequate construction management, and external environmental changes among other multifaceted factors. Based on these insights, this paper constructs a cost control system that comprehensively considers technical, economic, and management dimensions, proposing specific measures such as enhancing the scientific nature of early-stage decision-making, optimizing design management processes, improving construction precision, and refining risk prevention mechanisms. The innovation of this study lies in integrating the full life cycle concept into cost management practices and exploring dynamic cost monitoring methods through big data technology, thereby providing theoretical support and practical guidance to the industry. The results demonstrate that systematic optimization and technological innovation can significantly reduce the probability of cost overruns, enhance project economic and social benefits, and offer crucial references for the high-quality development of the urban rail transit industry.
Keywords: Urban Rail Transit; Cost Overrun; Whole Life Cycle Management; Cost Control System; Big Data Technology
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 城市轨道交通造价超支的研究背景 1
1.2 研究城市轨道交通造价超支的意义 1
1.3 国内外研究现状综述 1
1.4 本文研究方法与技术路线 2
第2章 造价超支的主要原因分析 3
2.1 政策与法规因素对造价的影响 3
2.2 设计变更导致的造价超支问题 3
2.3 施工管理不善引发的成本增加 4
2.4 材料与设备价格波动的影响 4
2.5 不可抗力因素的作用分析 5
第3章 造价超支的风险评估与控制 6
3.1 造价超支风险的识别与分类 6
3.2 风险评估模型的构建与应用 6
3.3 数据驱动的造价超支预测方法 7
3.4 关键风险因素的量化分析 7
3.5 风险控制策略的设计与实施 8
第4章 造价超支的应对措施与优化方案 9
4.1 完善政策法规体系的建议 9
4.2 提高设计阶段成本控制能力 9
4.3 强化施工过程中的成本管理 10
4.4 构建动态材料价格监控机制 10
4.5 推动信息化技术在造价管理中的应用 11
结论 12
参考文献 13
致 谢 14
