工程造价估算中类比法的适用性与改进策略 -工程造价专业

摘要

工程造价估算是项目管理中的关键环节，其准确性直接影响项目的经济性和可行性。类比法作为一种基于历史数据的估算方法，在资源有限或信息不足的情况下具有独特优势，但其适用性受制于项目相似度评估和数据质量等多方面因素。本研究旨在探讨类比法在工程造价估算中的适用性，并提出针对性改进策略以提升其精度和可靠性。研究采用理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法，首先梳理了类比法的基本原理及其在工程领域的应用现状，随后通过案例分析和统计建模对影响估算精度的关键因素进行了深入剖析。结果表明，项目特征匹配度、历史数据标准化程度以及估算人员的专业经验是决定类比法效果的核心要素。在此基础上，本文提出了基于多层次特征筛选的相似性评估模型，并结合机器学习算法优化了参数校准过程，从而显著提升了估算结果的一致性和准确性。研究结论不仅验证了类比法在特定条件下的有效性，还为其在复杂工程项目中的应用提供了新的思路和工具支持。本研究的主要创新点在于将定量分析与定性判断有机结合，同时引入智能化技术改进传统方法的局限性，为工程造价估算领域提供了更具操作性的解决方案。

关键词：工程造价估算；类比法；相似性评估模型；机器学习；项目特征匹配度

ABSTRACT

Cost estimation is a critical component of project management, and its accuracy directly affects the economic viability and feasibility of a project. As an estimation method based on historical data, the analogy method demonstrates unique advantages in situations with limited resources or insufficient information; however, its applicability is constrained by multiple factors, including project similarity assessment and data quality. This study aims to investigate the applicability of the analogy method in cost estimation for engineering projects and proposes targeted improvement strategies to enhance its precision and reliability. By integrating theoretical analysis with empirical research, the study first reviews the fundamental principles of the analogy method and its current application status in the engineering domain. Subsequently, through case analysis and statistical modeling, it conducts an in-depth examination of the key factors influencing estimation accuracy. The results indicate that project feature matching, the degree of standardization of historical data, and the professional experience of estimators are the core elements determining the effectiveness of the analogy method. Based on these findings, this paper introduces a similarity evaluation model based on multi-level feature screening and optimizes the parameter calibration process using machine learning algorithms, thereby significantly improving the consistency and accuracy of estimation outcomes. The conclusions not only validate the effectiveness of the analogy method under specific conditions but also provide new insights and tools for its application in complex engineering projects. A major innovation of this study lies in the organic combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative judgment, as well as the integration of intelligent technologies to address the limitations of traditional methods, offering more operational solutions for the field of engineering cost estimation.

Keywords: Engineering Cost Estimation; Analogy Method; Similarity Evaluation Model; Machine Learning; Project Feature Matching Degree