摘 要
随着全球地缘政治格局的深刻变化，贸易制裁作为国家间博弈的重要工具日益受到关注，其对国际经济秩序和双边关系的影响也愈发显著。本研究旨在探讨地缘政治冲突背景下贸易制裁的实施机制及其反制策略，通过构建理论框架并结合实证分析，揭示制裁行为的动因、路径及后果。贸易制裁在实现政治目标方面具有一定的短期效应，但长期来看可能引发被制裁方的适应性调整，并对全球经济体系造成系统性风险。本研究创新性地提出了一种动态评估模型，用于量化制裁的综合影响，并设计了多层次的反制策略体系，包括经济结构调整、国际合作深化以及法律制度完善等方面。这一研究成果不仅为相关国家制定应对措施提供了理论支持，还为优化全球治理机制、减少制裁带来的负面溢出效应贡献了重要参考。
关键词：贸易制裁；地缘政治冲突；反制策略；动态评估模型；全球经济体系
Trade Sanctions as Tools in Geopolitical Conflicts and Countermeasures
英文人名
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Abstract
With the profound changes in the global geopolitical pattern, trade sanctions, as an important tool of inter-state game, have attracted increasing attention, and their impact on the international economic order and bilateral relations has become more and more significant. The purpose of this study is to explore the implementation mechanism and countermeasures of trade sanctions in the context of geopolitical conflicts, and to reveal the motivation, path and consequences of sanctions by constructing a theoretical fr amework and combining empirical analysis. Trade sanctions have certain short-term effects in achieving political goals, but in the long run they may trigger adaptation on the part of the sanctioned parties and pose systemic risks to the global economic system. This study innovatively proposes a dynamic assessment model for quantifying the comprehensive impact of sanctions, and designs a multi-level system of countermeasures, including economic restructuring, deepening international cooperation, and improving the legal system. This research result not only provides theoretical support for relevant countries to formulate countermeasures, but also contributes an important reference for optimizing the global governance mechanism and reducing the negative spillover effects caused by sanctions.
Keywords: Trade Sanctions；Geopolitical Conflicts；Countermeasures Strategies；Dynamic Evaluation Model；Global Economic System
目 录
引言 1
一、贸易制裁工具的理论基础 1
(一)地缘政治与贸易制裁的关系 1
(二)贸易制裁的主要类型分析 2
(三)制裁工具的有效性评估框架 2
二、现代地缘政治冲突中的制裁实践 3
(一)近期国际制裁案例解析 3
(二)制裁目标与实施路径选择 3
(三)制裁对全球经济的影响机制 4
三、受制裁国家的反制策略研究 4
(一)反制策略的理论框架构建 4
(二)经济多元化与供应链重构 5
(三)国际合作与外交博弈 5
四、制裁与反制的动态平衡及未来趋势 6
(一)制裁与反制的互动关系分析 6
(二)新兴技术对制裁工具的影响 6
(三)全球治理视角下的制裁改革方向 7
结论 8
参考文献 9
致谢 9
