新兴市场国家汇率制度选择的困境与突破 -金融学专业

摘要

新兴市场国家在全球经济中的地位日益提升，但其汇率制度选择却长期面临复杂挑战。本文旨在探讨这些国家在汇率制度设计中的困境，并提出可能的突破路径。传统的固定或浮动汇率制度难以同时满足资本开放背景下的政策独立性和汇率稳定性需求，而中间汇率制度虽能提供一定灵活性，却容易因外部冲击导致货币危机。本文创新性地提出了“动态适应型汇率制度”概念，强调根据经济周期和外部环境调整汇率管理策略的重要性。研究表明，通过构建以规则为基础的干预机制并加强区域货币合作，新兴市场国家能够显著降低汇率波动风险，同时增强政策自主性。这一结论为相关国家提供了重要的政策参考，也为国际金融体系改革贡献了新的理论视角。

关键词：汇率制度；新兴市场国家；动态适应型汇率制度；资本流动管理；宏观经济稳定

Dilemmas and Breakthroughs in Exchange Rate Regime Selection for Emerging Market Economies

英文人名

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Abstract

Emerging market countries are playing an increasingly important role in the global economy, but their choice of exchange rate regime has long faced complex challenges. The purpose of this paper is to explore the dilemma of these countries in the design of exchange rate regime, and to propose a possible breakthrough path. The traditional fixed or floating exchange rate system cannot meet the needs of policy independence and exchange rate stability under the background of capital opening at the same time, while the intermediate exchange rate system can provide some flexibility, but it is easy to lead to currency crisis due to external shocks. This paper innovatively puts forward the concept of "dynamic adaptive exchange rate system" and emphasizes the importance of adjusting exchange rate management strategy according to economic cycle and external environment. Research shows that by establishing rules-based intervention mechanisms and strengthening regional monetary cooperation, emerging market countries can significantly reduce the risk of exchange rate volatility while increasing policy autonomy. This conclusion provides important policy reference for relevant countries, and also contributes a new theoretical perspective for the reform of the international financial system.

Keywords: Exchange Rate System；Emerging Market Countries；Dynamic Adaptive Exchange Rate System；Capital Flow Management；Macroeconomic Stability

引言 1

一、汇率制度选择的理论基础 1

(一)汇率制度的基本概念 1

(二)理论框架与经典模型 2

(三)新兴市场国家的特殊性 2

二、新兴市场国家汇率制度的现实困境 3

(一)经济波动与政策协调难题 3

(二)资本流动冲击的影响 3

(三)国际储备管理的压力 4

三、汇率制度选择的外部约束分析 4

(一)全球经济环境的影响 5