金融脆弱性理论视角下系统性风险防范研究 -金融学专业

摘要

金融脆弱性作为系统性风险的重要来源，其理论研究对维护金融稳定具有重要意义。本文基于金融脆弱性理论视角，探讨系统性风险的形成机制及其防范策略，旨在为构建更加稳健的金融体系提供理论支持与实践指导。金融机构间的关联性、资产价格波动以及杠杆率水平是影响系统性风险的核心因素，而金融脆弱性的累积往往源于市场参与者的行为一致性与信息不对称。本文创新性地提出了基于节点重要性和时变特征的风险预警指标体系，并验证了其在实际危机预测中的有效性。研究结论表明，强化宏观审慎监管、优化资本缓冲机制以及提升市场透明度是降低系统性风险的关键措施。本研究的主要贡献在于将金融脆弱性理论与系统性风险管理相结合，为政策制定者提供了更具操作性的分析工具和决策参考。

关键词：金融脆弱性；系统性风险；复杂网络模型；宏观审慎监管；风险预警指标体系

Research on Systemic Risk Prevention from the Perspective of Financial Fragility Theory

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Abstract

As an important source of systemic risk, the theoretical study of financial fragility is of great significance to the maintenance of financial stability. Based on the theory of financial vulnerability, this paper discusses the formation mechanism of systemic risk and its prevention strategies, aiming to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for building a more robust financial system. The interconnectedness among financial institutions, asset price fluctuations and leverage ratio are the core factors affecting systemic risk, while the accumulation of financial vulnerabilities often results from the behavioral consistency and information asymmetry of market participants. This paper innovatively proposes a risk early warning index system based on node importance and time-varying characteristics, and verifies its effectiveness in actual crisis prediction. The study concluded that strengthening macro-prudential supervision, optimizing capital buffer mechanism and enhancing market transparency are key measures to reduce systemic risks. The main contribution of this study is to combine financial vulnerability theory with systemic risk management to provide more operational analysis tools and decision-making references for policy makers.

Keywords: Financial Fragility；Systemic Risk；Complex Network Model；Macro-prudential Supervision；Risk Warning Index System

引言 1

一、金融脆弱性理论基础研究 1

(一)金融脆弱性的概念界定 1

(二)金融脆弱性的形成机制分析 2

(三)金融脆弱性与系统性风险的关系 2

二、系统性风险的识别与评估方法 3

(一)系统性风险的主要来源分析 3

(二)系统性风险的量化评估工具 3

(三)基于金融脆弱性的风险识别框架 4

三、金融脆弱性视角下的防范策略构建 4

(一)防范策略的理论依据与原则 5