全球货币体系演变对中国金融安全的影响机制研究 -金融学专业

摘要

全球货币体系的演变对各国金融安全具有深远影响，而中国作为全球经济的重要参与者，其金融安全面临新的机遇与挑战。本研究以全球货币体系的历史演变为背景，探讨其对中国金融安全的影响机制，旨在揭示国际货币格局变化对国内金融稳定的作用路径。全球货币体系的多极化趋势加剧了人民币国际化进程中的不确定性，同时外部冲击可能通过跨境资本流动放大国内金融市场风险。创新点在于首次将全球货币体系演变的动态特征与中国的金融安全评估相结合，并提出基于情景分析的风险预警模型。主要贡献体现在为政策制定者提供应对国际货币体系变革的具体策略建议，包括优化外汇储备管理、增强金融监管协调以及推动人民币国际化进程，从而提升中国在全球金融治理中的主动权与抗风险能力。

关键词：全球货币体系；金融安全；人民币国际化；跨境资本流动；风险预警模型

Research on the Impact Mechanism of the Evolution of the Global Monetary System on China's Financial Security

英文人名

Directive teacher:×××

Abstract

The evolution of the global monetary system has a profound impact on the financial security of all countries, and China, as an important player in the global economy, faces new opportunities and challenges in its financial security. With the historical evolution of the global monetary system as the background, this study explores the mechanism of its impact on China's financial security, and aims to reveal the effect of changes in the international monetary pattern on domestic financial stability. The multi-polarization trend of the global monetary system has intensified the uncertainty in the process of RMB internationalization, while external shocks may amplify domestic financial market risks through cross-border capital flows. The innovation point is to combine the dynamic characteristics of the evolution of the global monetary system with China's financial security assessment for the first time, and propose a risk warning model based on scenario analysis. The main contribution is to provide policy makers with specific strategic suggestions to cope with the reform of the international monetary system, including optimizing the management of foreign exchange reserves, enhancing the coordination of financial supervision and promoting the internationalization of the RMB, so as to enhance China's initiative and anti-risk ability in global financial governance.

Keywords: Global Currency System；Financial Security；Renminbi Internationalization；Cross-border Capital Flow；Risk Warning Model

引言 1

一、全球货币体系演变概述 1

(一)全球货币体系的历史演进 1

(二)当前全球货币体系的特征 2

(三)货币体系演变的关键驱动因素 2

二、中国金融安全的核心要素分析 3

(一)金融安全的概念与内涵 3

(二)中国金融安全的主要构成 3

(三)影响中国金融安全的关键风险点 4

三、货币体系演变对中国金融安全的影响机制 5

(一)国际储备货币结构变化的影响 5