人口老龄化对经济增长的长远影响研究
摘 要：本研究深入探讨了人口老龄化对经济增长的长远影响。随着全球范围内人口结构的转变，老龄化现象日益凸显，其对经济社会发展的作用机制愈发引人关注。本研究旨在通过定量分析与理论探讨相结合的方式，揭示老龄化与经济增长之间的内在联系，并预测未来发展趋势。研究采用了多元线性回归模型，结合国内外权威数据，对老龄化指标与经济增长指标进行了实证分析。通过控制其他潜在影响因素，我们精确地估计了老龄化对经济增长的净效应。结果显示，老龄化对经济增长的影响呈现出非线性特征，初期对经济增长有一定的促进作用，但随着老龄化程度的加深，其负面效应逐渐显现。本研究创新性地提出了老龄化对经济增长的“双门槛”效应假说，并通过实证数据进行了验证。此外，我们还从劳动力供给、消费需求、技术创新以及社会保障等多个角度，全面剖析了老龄化影响经济增长的机理。研究发现，老龄化不仅通过减少劳动力供给直接影响经济增长，还通过改变消费需求结构、影响技术创新能力和增加社会保障负担等间接途径对经济增长产生深远影响。
关键词：人口老龄化;经济增长;双门槛效应;多元线性回归模型;影响机理
A Study on the Long-term Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growth
Abstract: This study delves into the long-term impact of population aging on economic growth. As demographic shifts occur globally, the phenomenon of aging has become increasingly prominent, drawing attention to its mechanisms on economic and social development. Through a combination of quantitative analysis and theoretical exploration, this research aims to unveil the intrinsic link between aging and economic growth, as well as to forecast future trends.Employing a multiple linear regression model and incorporating authoritative data from both domestic and international sources, the study conducted an empirical analysis of aging indicators and economic growth metrics. By controlling for other potential influencing factors, we precisely estimated the net effect of aging on economic growth. The results indicate that the impact of aging on economic growth exhibits nonlinear characteristics, initially promoting economic growth to a certain extent, but as the degree of aging intensifies, its negative effects gradually emerge.This study innovatively proposes the hypothesis of a "double threshold" effect of aging on economic growth and validates it through empirical data. Furthermore, we comprehensively analyzed the mechanisms through which aging affects economic growth from multiple perspectives, including labor supply, consumer demand, technological innovation, and social security. The findings reveal that aging not only directly impacts economic growth by reducing labor supply but also exerts profound indirect influences by altering the structure of consumer demand, affecting technological innovation capabilities, and increasing the burden on social security.
Keywords: Population Aging; Economic Growth; Double Threshold Effect; Multiple Linear Regression Model; Impact Mechanism
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）研究背景和意义 1
（二）国内外研究现状 1
（三）研究方法与技术路线 1
二、人口老龄化的现状与趋势分析 2
（一）人口老龄化的定义与衡量指标 2
（二）全球人口老龄化的现状与特点 2
（三）中国人口老龄化的历程与趋势 3
（四）人口老龄化对经济社会发展的挑战 3
三、人口老龄化对经济增长的影响机制 4
（一）经济增长理论与人口老龄化因素 4
（二）人口老龄化对劳动力市场的影响 5
（三）人口老龄化对消费需求的影响 5
（四）人口老龄化对储蓄与投资的影响 6
（五）人口老龄化对技术创新与产业升级的影响 6
四、人口老龄化对经济增长影响的实证研究 7
（一）国内外实证研究成果回顾 7
（二）研究方法与数据来源 7
（三）人口老龄化与经济增长关系的实证分析 8
（四）人口老龄化对经济增长影响的区域差异分析 8
（五）人口老龄化对经济增长的长期趋势预测 9
结论 9
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
