摘 要：随着金融科技的快速发展，数字货币逐渐成为全球经济体系中的重要组成部分，其对宏观经济稳定性的影响机制亟待深入研究。本研究以数字货币为切入点，探讨其在货币流通、货币政策传导以及金融风险防控等方面的潜在作用与挑战，旨在揭示数字货币对宏观经济稳定性的复杂影响路径。研究采用理论分析与实证检验相结合的方法，首先构建了数字货币影响宏观经济稳定性的理论框架，随后基于多国面板数据，运用动态面板模型对数字货币的经济效应进行了量化分析。结果显示，数字货币的普及在一定程度上优化了货币流通效率和货币政策传导效果，但同时也可能加剧金融市场波动性和跨境资本流动的不确定性。本研究的创新点在于首次将数字货币的技术特性和经济功能纳入统一分析框架，并通过引入动态面板模型，提升了研究结果的稳健性与解释力。主要贡献体现在三个方面：一是丰富了数字货币经济效应的研究视角；二是为政策制定者提供了科学依据，以平衡数字货币发展与宏观调控目标；三是提出了加强数字货币监管国际合作的必要性，以应对潜在的系统性风险。总体而言，本研究为理解数字货币与宏观经济稳定性的关系提供了新的理论支持与实践指导。
关键词：数字货币；宏观经济稳定性；动态面板模型；货币政策传导；金融风险防控
An Investigation into the Mechanisms by Which Digital Currencies Affect Macroeconomic Stability
Abstract: With the rapid development of financial technology, digital currencies have gradually become an important component of the global economic system, and their impact mechanisms on macroeconomic stability urgently require in-depth research. This study takes digital currencies as a starting point to explore their potential roles and challenges in terms of currency circulation, monetary policy transmission, and financial risk prevention and control, aiming to reveal the complex influence pathways of digital currencies on macroeconomic stability. By combining theoretical analysis with empirical testing, this study first constructs a theoretical fr amework for how digital currencies affect macroeconomic stability. Subsequently, based on multi-country panel data, a dynamic panel model is employed to conduct quantitative analysis of the economic effects of digital currencies. The results indicate that the popularization of digital currencies can, to some extent, enhance the efficiency of currency circulation and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission; however, it may also exacerbate financial market volatility and the uncertainty of cross-border capital flows. The innovation of this study lies in its integration of the technical characteristics and economic functions of digital currencies into a unified analytical fr amework for the first time, while the introduction of a dynamic panel model enhances the robustness and explanatory power of the findings. The main contributions are reflected in three aspects: first, enriching the research perspectives on the economic effects of digital currencies; second, providing scientific evidence for policymakers to balance the development of digital currencies with macroeconomic regulatory ob jectives; and third, emphasizing the necessity of strengthening international cooperation in regulating digital currencies to address potential systemic risks. Overall, this study offers new theoretical support and practical guidance for understanding the relationship between digital currencies and macroeconomic stability.
Keywords: Digital Currency; Macroeconomic Stability; Dynamic Panel Model; Monetary Policy Transmission; Financial Risk Prevention
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1数字货币与宏观经济稳定性的研究背景 1
1.2研究数字货币对宏观经济稳定性影响的意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状综述 1
1.4本文研究方法与创新点 2
2数字货币对货币政策传导机制的影响 2
2.1数字货币的定义与分类 2
2.2货币政策传导的传统路径分析 3
2.3数字货币对利率传导机制的作用 3
2.4数字货币对信贷传导机制的干扰 4
2.5数字货币对资产价格传导的影响 4
3数字货币对金融体系稳定性的影响 5
3.1金融体系稳定性的核心要素 5
3.2数字货币对银行体系流动性的冲击 5
3.3数字货币对支付清算系统的重塑 6
3.4数字货币对系统性风险的潜在影响 6
3.5数字货币对跨境资本流动的调节作用 7
4数字货币对经济周期波动的影响机制 7
4.1经济周期波动的基本理论框架 7
4.2数字货币对需求侧管理的影响分析 8
4.3数字货币对供给侧改革的推动作用 8
4.4数字货币在平抑经济周期中的潜力 9
4.5数字货币对国际经济周期同步性的影响 9
结论 10
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
关键词：数字货币；宏观经济稳定性；动态面板模型；货币政策传导；金融风险防控
An Investigation into the Mechanisms by Which Digital Currencies Affect Macroeconomic Stability
Abstract: With the rapid development of financial technology, digital currencies have gradually become an important component of the global economic system, and their impact mechanisms on macroeconomic stability urgently require in-depth research. This study takes digital currencies as a starting point to explore their potential roles and challenges in terms of currency circulation, monetary policy transmission, and financial risk prevention and control, aiming to reveal the complex influence pathways of digital currencies on macroeconomic stability. By combining theoretical analysis with empirical testing, this study first constructs a theoretical fr amework for how digital currencies affect macroeconomic stability. Subsequently, based on multi-country panel data, a dynamic panel model is employed to conduct quantitative analysis of the economic effects of digital currencies. The results indicate that the popularization of digital currencies can, to some extent, enhance the efficiency of currency circulation and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission; however, it may also exacerbate financial market volatility and the uncertainty of cross-border capital flows. The innovation of this study lies in its integration of the technical characteristics and economic functions of digital currencies into a unified analytical fr amework for the first time, while the introduction of a dynamic panel model enhances the robustness and explanatory power of the findings. The main contributions are reflected in three aspects: first, enriching the research perspectives on the economic effects of digital currencies; second, providing scientific evidence for policymakers to balance the development of digital currencies with macroeconomic regulatory ob jectives; and third, emphasizing the necessity of strengthening international cooperation in regulating digital currencies to address potential systemic risks. Overall, this study offers new theoretical support and practical guidance for understanding the relationship between digital currencies and macroeconomic stability.
Keywords: Digital Currency; Macroeconomic Stability; Dynamic Panel Model; Monetary Policy Transmission; Financial Risk Prevention
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1数字货币与宏观经济稳定性的研究背景 1
1.2研究数字货币对宏观经济稳定性影响的意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状综述 1
1.4本文研究方法与创新点 2
2数字货币对货币政策传导机制的影响 2
2.1数字货币的定义与分类 2
2.2货币政策传导的传统路径分析 3
2.3数字货币对利率传导机制的作用 3
2.4数字货币对信贷传导机制的干扰 4
2.5数字货币对资产价格传导的影响 4
3数字货币对金融体系稳定性的影响 5
3.1金融体系稳定性的核心要素 5
3.2数字货币对银行体系流动性的冲击 5
3.3数字货币对支付清算系统的重塑 6
3.4数字货币对系统性风险的潜在影响 6
3.5数字货币对跨境资本流动的调节作用 7
4数字货币对经济周期波动的影响机制 7
4.1经济周期波动的基本理论框架 7
4.2数字货币对需求侧管理的影响分析 8
4.3数字货币对供给侧改革的推动作用 8
4.4数字货币在平抑经济周期中的潜力 9
4.5数字货币对国际经济周期同步性的影响 9
结论 10
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
