摘 要
土木工程灾害风险评估对于保障工程建设安全和可持续发展具有重要意义，随着地理信息系统（GIS）技术的发展，其在灾害风险评估中的应用日益广泛。本研究旨在构建基于GIS的土木工程灾害风险评估体系，以提高风险评估的准确性与科学性。通过收集整理土木工程所在区域的地质、地形、水文等多源异构数据，并利用GIS空间分析功能对数据进行处理融合，建立灾害因子数据库。在此基础上，采用层次分析法确定各灾害因子权重，构建灾害风险评价指标体系，运用模糊综合评价模型计算风险指数。结果表明，该方法能够直观地展示不同区域的风险等级分布情况，为工程选址规划提供决策支持。创新点在于整合多源数据并借助GIS平台实现空间可视化表达，同时将定性与定量分析相结合，克服传统评估方法主观性强、精度低的问题，为土木工程灾害风险管理提供了新思路和技术手段，有助于提升工程全生命周期的安全管理水平。
关键词：土木工程灾害风险评估；GIS空间分析；多源数据融合；模糊综合评价；层次分析法
Abstract
Risk assessment of civil engineering disasters is of significant importance for ensuring the safety and sustainable development of construction projects. With the advancement of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, its application in disaster risk assessment has become increasingly widespread. This study aims to construct a GIS-based disaster risk assessment system for civil engineering to enhance the accuracy and scientific rigor of risk assessments. By collecting and organizing multi-source heterogeneous data such as geological, topographical, and hydrological information from the project area, and utilizing the spatial analysis capabilities of GIS to process and integrate this data, a hazard factor database is established. On this foundation, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed to determine the weights of various hazard factors, thereby constructing a disaster risk evaluation index system. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is then applied to calculate the risk indices. The results indicate that this method can intuitively display the distribution of risk levels across different regions, providing decision support for site selection and planning. The innovation lies in integrating multi-source data and leveraging the GIS platform to achieve spatial visualization, while combining qualitative and quantitative analyses to overcome the limitations of traditional assessment methods, which are often subjective and lack precision. This approach offers new ideas and technical means for civil engineering disaster risk management, contributing to improved safety management throughout the entire lifecycle of engineering projects.
Keywords：Disaster Risk Assessment Of Civil Engineering；Gis Spatial Analysis；Multi-source Data Fusion；Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation；Analytic Hierarchy Process
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
引 言 1
第一章 土木工程灾害风险评估概述 2
1.1 土木工程灾害类型分析 2
1.2 灾害风险评估的意义 2
第二章 GIS技术与数据处理 4
2.1 数据收集与预处理 4
2.2 空间数据分析方法 4
第三章 风险评估模型构建 6
3.1 模型框架设计原则 6
3.2 关键参数确定方法 6
3.3 模型验证与优化 7
第四章 实际案例应用研究 9
4.1 案例区域背景介绍 9
4.2 风险评估结果分析 9
4.3 应对措施与建议 10
结 论 12
参考文献 13
致 谢 14
