摘 要
近年来，随着全球经济格局的深刻变革，国际贸易摩擦呈现出频发态势，对世界经济产生了深远影响。本研究旨在系统评估国际贸易摩擦的经济效应，为政策制定提供理论依据。研究采用动态一般均衡模型（DSGE）与投入产出分析相结合的方法，构建了包含贸易摩擦冲击的多国经济模型。通过收集2000-2022年全球主要经济体的贸易数据，运用面板数据分析、结构向量自回归（SVAR）等方法进行实证检验。研究发现：首先，贸易摩擦对参与国的GDP增长率平均产生1.5-2.8个百分点的负面影响，且这种影响具有显著的滞后效应；其次，不同产业受贸易摩擦的影响程度存在显著差异，其中高科技产业的受损程度最为严重；再次，贸易摩擦会引发全球价值链重构，导致区域化生产网络加速形成。
关键词：国际贸易摩擦 经济效应 投入产出分析
Abstract
In recent years, with the profound changes in the global economic pattern, international trade frictions have shown a frequent trend, having a far-reaching impact on the world economy. This study aims to systematically evaluate the economic effects of international trade friction and provide a theoretical basis for policy making. The study combines dynamic general equilibrium model (DSGE) and input-output analysis to construct a multinational economic model including the impact of trade friction. By collecting trade data of the world's major economies from 2000 to 2022, panel data analysis, structural vector autoregression and other methods (SVAR). The study found that: firstly, trade friction has a negative impact on the GDP growth rate of 1.5-2.8 percentage points in the participating countries, and this effect has significant lag effect; secondly, different industries are significantly affected by trade friction, among which the damage of high-tech industry is the most serious; Thirdly, trade friction will cause the reconstruction of global value chain, leading to the accelerated formation of regional production network.
Keyword: International trade friction economic effect input-output analysis
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究现状 1
1.3研究方法与创新点 1
2国际贸易摩擦的理论基础与形成机制 2
2.1国际贸易摩擦的理论溯源 2
2.2当代国际贸易摩擦的主要特征 2
2.3贸易摩擦的形成机制分析 3
3国际贸易摩擦的宏观经济效应评估 4
3.1贸易摩擦对经济增长的影响评估 4
3.2贸易摩擦对产业结构的影响分析 4
3.3贸易摩擦对就业市场的冲击评估 5
4国际贸易摩擦的微观经济效应评估 5
4.1企业层面贸易摩擦影响实证分析 5
4.2消费者福利变化评估 6
4.3产业链重构效应研究 7
5结论 7
参考文献 9
致谢 10
近年来，随着全球经济格局的深刻变革，国际贸易摩擦呈现出频发态势，对世界经济产生了深远影响。本研究旨在系统评估国际贸易摩擦的经济效应，为政策制定提供理论依据。研究采用动态一般均衡模型（DSGE）与投入产出分析相结合的方法，构建了包含贸易摩擦冲击的多国经济模型。通过收集2000-2022年全球主要经济体的贸易数据，运用面板数据分析、结构向量自回归（SVAR）等方法进行实证检验。研究发现：首先，贸易摩擦对参与国的GDP增长率平均产生1.5-2.8个百分点的负面影响，且这种影响具有显著的滞后效应；其次，不同产业受贸易摩擦的影响程度存在显著差异，其中高科技产业的受损程度最为严重；再次，贸易摩擦会引发全球价值链重构，导致区域化生产网络加速形成。
关键词：国际贸易摩擦 经济效应 投入产出分析
Abstract
In recent years, with the profound changes in the global economic pattern, international trade frictions have shown a frequent trend, having a far-reaching impact on the world economy. This study aims to systematically evaluate the economic effects of international trade friction and provide a theoretical basis for policy making. The study combines dynamic general equilibrium model (DSGE) and input-output analysis to construct a multinational economic model including the impact of trade friction. By collecting trade data of the world's major economies from 2000 to 2022, panel data analysis, structural vector autoregression and other methods (SVAR). The study found that: firstly, trade friction has a negative impact on the GDP growth rate of 1.5-2.8 percentage points in the participating countries, and this effect has significant lag effect; secondly, different industries are significantly affected by trade friction, among which the damage of high-tech industry is the most serious; Thirdly, trade friction will cause the reconstruction of global value chain, leading to the accelerated formation of regional production network.
Keyword: International trade friction economic effect input-output analysis
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究现状 1
1.3研究方法与创新点 1
2国际贸易摩擦的理论基础与形成机制 2
2.1国际贸易摩擦的理论溯源 2
2.2当代国际贸易摩擦的主要特征 2
2.3贸易摩擦的形成机制分析 3
3国际贸易摩擦的宏观经济效应评估 4
3.1贸易摩擦对经济增长的影响评估 4
3.2贸易摩擦对产业结构的影响分析 4
3.3贸易摩擦对就业市场的冲击评估 5
4国际贸易摩擦的微观经济效应评估 5
4.1企业层面贸易摩擦影响实证分析 5
4.2消费者福利变化评估 6
4.3产业链重构效应研究 7
5结论 7
参考文献 9
致谢 10
