摘 要
工程项目的风险控制一直是工程项目的核心内容，也是众多专家和业界共同关心的问题。但是，对于企业的核心企业来说，其风险的辨识和评价大多是在理论层面上进行的，在实践中缺少实践上的实践研究。
针对普通建筑工程的特点，将风险辨识与评价作为研究的重点，通过德尔菲法与风险分解构造法的比较，给出了一种以等风险图和风险矩阵为基础的风险评价与最优性策略。通过对 M建筑工程项目的风险分析，提出了一种基于风险的辨识算法，即对其进行了分析，并给出了相应的风险分析框架。运用等风险图和风险矩阵分析了两种评价方式的不同之处，引入 Borda值法，将其有效地减小了这种差别，从而建立了一个最优化的危险排序表格来进行风险评价。利用以上的方法，对工程项目进行了风险辨识与评价，同时进行了工程效益的评价。风险的辨识与评价是工程项目风险的核心所在，对工程项目的风险辨识与评价进行了深入的探讨，建立起一套完整的风险评价与辨识策略，对于工程项目的风险管理工作的正确性与正确性有着重要的理论与现实价值。
关键词：风险识别 德尔菲法 风险评估
Abstract
Risk control of engineering projects has always been the core content of engineering projects, and is also a common concern of many experts and the industry. However, for the core enterprises of enterprises, the identification and evaluation of their risks are mostly carried out at the theoretical level, and lack of practical research in practice.
In view of the characteristics of ordinary construction projects, risk identification and evaluation are the focus of the study. Through the comparison between Delphi method and risk decomposition construction method, a risk evaluation and optimization strategy based on the equal risk map and risk matrix is given. Through the risk analysis of M construction project, a risk-based identification algorithm is proposed, that is, it is analyzed, and the corresponding risk analysis fr amework is given. The differences between the two evaluation methods are analyzed by using the iso-risk diagram and the risk matrix, and the Borda value method is introduced to effectively reduce the differences, thus establishing an optimized risk ranking table for risk evaluation. Using the above methods, the risk identification and evaluation of the project are carried out, and the project benefits are also evaluated. Risk identification and evaluation is the core of engineering project risk. The risk identification and evaluation of engineering project has been deeply discussed, and a complete set of risk evaluation and identification strategies has been established, which has important theoretical and practical value for the correctness and correctness of engineering project risk management.
Key words: Risk identification Delphi method risk assessment
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
1 前言 1
1.1 研究的背景和意义 1
1.2 国内外研究 2
1.2.1 国内研究 2
1.2.2 国外研究 3
2 基本概述和理论 3
2.1 建设工程项目风险管理概述 3
2.1.1 建设工程项目特点 3
2.1.2 风险的特征 4
2.1.3 风险管理的内容 5
2.2 风险识别理论 5
2.2.1 常用风险识别方法概述 5
2.2.2 适用性分析 6
2.3 风险分析与评估理论 7
3 M 建设工程项目风险识别案例分析 7
3.1 M 项目概况及特点 8
3.1.1 项目概况 8
3.1.2 项目特点 8
3.2 M项目风险识别方法应用分析 9
4 M 建设工程项目风险评估案例分析 10
4.1 风险评估策略对比分析 10
4.2 应用阐述的风险识别及评估方法的结果分析 10
4.2.1 前提假设 11
4.2.2 有效性分析 12
5 结论 12
参考文献 14
致 谢 16
工程项目的风险控制一直是工程项目的核心内容，也是众多专家和业界共同关心的问题。但是，对于企业的核心企业来说，其风险的辨识和评价大多是在理论层面上进行的，在实践中缺少实践上的实践研究。
针对普通建筑工程的特点，将风险辨识与评价作为研究的重点，通过德尔菲法与风险分解构造法的比较，给出了一种以等风险图和风险矩阵为基础的风险评价与最优性策略。通过对 M建筑工程项目的风险分析，提出了一种基于风险的辨识算法，即对其进行了分析，并给出了相应的风险分析框架。运用等风险图和风险矩阵分析了两种评价方式的不同之处，引入 Borda值法，将其有效地减小了这种差别，从而建立了一个最优化的危险排序表格来进行风险评价。利用以上的方法，对工程项目进行了风险辨识与评价，同时进行了工程效益的评价。风险的辨识与评价是工程项目风险的核心所在，对工程项目的风险辨识与评价进行了深入的探讨，建立起一套完整的风险评价与辨识策略，对于工程项目的风险管理工作的正确性与正确性有着重要的理论与现实价值。
关键词：风险识别 德尔菲法 风险评估
Abstract
Risk control of engineering projects has always been the core content of engineering projects, and is also a common concern of many experts and the industry. However, for the core enterprises of enterprises, the identification and evaluation of their risks are mostly carried out at the theoretical level, and lack of practical research in practice.
In view of the characteristics of ordinary construction projects, risk identification and evaluation are the focus of the study. Through the comparison between Delphi method and risk decomposition construction method, a risk evaluation and optimization strategy based on the equal risk map and risk matrix is given. Through the risk analysis of M construction project, a risk-based identification algorithm is proposed, that is, it is analyzed, and the corresponding risk analysis fr amework is given. The differences between the two evaluation methods are analyzed by using the iso-risk diagram and the risk matrix, and the Borda value method is introduced to effectively reduce the differences, thus establishing an optimized risk ranking table for risk evaluation. Using the above methods, the risk identification and evaluation of the project are carried out, and the project benefits are also evaluated. Risk identification and evaluation is the core of engineering project risk. The risk identification and evaluation of engineering project has been deeply discussed, and a complete set of risk evaluation and identification strategies has been established, which has important theoretical and practical value for the correctness and correctness of engineering project risk management.
Key words: Risk identification Delphi method risk assessment
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
1 前言 1
1.1 研究的背景和意义 1
1.2 国内外研究 2
1.2.1 国内研究 2
1.2.2 国外研究 3
2 基本概述和理论 3
2.1 建设工程项目风险管理概述 3
2.1.1 建设工程项目特点 3
2.1.2 风险的特征 4
2.1.3 风险管理的内容 5
2.2 风险识别理论 5
2.2.1 常用风险识别方法概述 5
2.2.2 适用性分析 6
2.3 风险分析与评估理论 7
3 M 建设工程项目风险识别案例分析 7
3.1 M 项目概况及特点 8
3.1.1 项目概况 8
3.1.2 项目特点 8
3.2 M项目风险识别方法应用分析 9
4 M 建设工程项目风险评估案例分析 10
4.1 风险评估策略对比分析 10
4.2 应用阐述的风险识别及评估方法的结果分析 10
4.2.1 前提假设 11
4.2.2 有效性分析 12
5 结论 12
参考文献 14
致 谢 16
