摘 要
随着城市化进程的加速，交通拥堵、环境污染和能源消耗等问题日益凸显，交通需求管理（TDM）作为解决城市交通问题的重要手段，逐渐成为学术界和实践领域的研究热点。本研究旨在探讨城市交通规划中TDM策略的有效性及其实施路径，通过综合运用文献分析、案例研究和系统动力学建模等方法，深入剖析了TDM策略在缓解交通压力、优化资源配置和促进可持续发展中的作用。研究选取了国内外多个典型城市作为案例，对其TDM政策的实施效果进行了定量与定性相结合的评估，并构建了基于多目标优化的TDM策略评价体系。结果表明，合理的TDM策略能够显著降低私家车出行比例，提升公共交通分担率，减少碳排放量，并在经济、社会和环境效益之间实现平衡。本研究的创新点在于首次将系统动力学模型引入TDM策略的效果预测与优化设计中，为政策制定者提供了科学决策支持工具。此外，研究还提出了适应中国城市特点的TDM策略框架，强调政策组合的灵活性和动态调整的重要性。总体而言，本研究不仅丰富了TDM理论体系，也为城市交通规划实践提供了可操作性强的政策建议，对推动城市交通系统的可持续发展具有重要意义。
关键词：交通需求管理；系统动力学模型；多目标优化；可持续发展；政策组合
ABSTRACT
With the acceleration of urbanization, issues such as traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and energy consumption have become increasingly prominent. As an important approach to addressing urban transportation problems, Transportation Demand Management (TDM) has gradually emerged as a research focus in both academic and practical fields. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness and implementation pathways of TDM strategies in urban transportation planning. By employing a combination of literature analysis, case studies, and system dynamics modeling, this research provides an in-depth examination of the role of TDM strategies in alleviating traffic pressure, optimizing resource allocation, and promoting sustainable development. Multiple typical cities, both domestic and international, were selected as case studies to evaluate the implementation effects of TDM policies through a combination of quantitative and qualitative assessments. A multi-ob jective optimization-based evaluation system for TDM strategies was also constructed. The results indicate that well-designed TDM strategies can significantly reduce the proportion of private car travel, increase the public transport mode share, decrease carbon emissions, and achieve a balance among economic, social, and environmental benefits. An innovation of this study lies in the first application of system dynamics models to the prediction and optimization design of TDM strategy effects, providing policymakers with a scientific decision-support tool. Furthermore, this research proposes a TDM strategy fr amework tailored to the characteristics of Chinese cities, emphasizing the flexibility of policy combinations and the importance of dynamic adjustments. Overall, this study not only enriches the theoretical fr amework of TDM but also offers actionable policy recommendations for urban transportation planning practice, playing a significant role in advancing the sustainable development of urban transportation systems.
Keywords: Traffic Demand Management; System Dynamics Model; Multi-ob jective Optimization; Sustainable Development; Policy Portfolio
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 城市交通规划与需求管理的背景分析 1
1.2 交通需求管理策略研究的意义探讨 1
1.3 国内外研究现状与发展趋势综述 2
1.4 本文研究方法与技术路线设计 2
第2章 交通需求管理的核心理论框架 3
2.1 交通需求管理的基本概念与内涵 3
2.2 主要理论基础及其应用价值分析 3
2.3 需求管理策略的分类与功能解析 4
2.4 典型案例中的理论实践总结 4
2.5 理论框架对城市交通规划的指导意义 5
第3章 城市交通需求管理策略的设计与优化 6
3.1 需求管理策略的设计原则与目标设定 6
3.2 基于出行行为的策略制定方法研究 6
3.3 不同场景下需求管理策略的适用性分析 7
3.4 数据驱动的需求管理策略优化路径 7
3.5 策略实施中的关键问题与解决思路 8
第4章 需求管理策略在城市交通规划中的应用评估 9
4.1 应用评估的指标体系构建与方法选择 9
4.2 实际案例中需求管理策略的效果分析 9
4.3 策略实施的社会经济环境影响评价 10
4.4 技术支持与政策保障的作用分析 10
4.5 改进方向与未来研究展望 11
结论 12
参考文献 13
致 谢 14
