摘要
随着全球环境问题日益严峻，区域环境承载力评估成为实现可持续发展的重要基础。本研究旨在通过构建科学的评估体系，分析区域环境承载力现状及其影响因素，并提出针对性的可持续发展路径。研究选取典型区域为案例，综合运用系统动力学模型、地理信息系统（GIS）和多指标综合评价方法，对环境承载力进行动态模拟与定量分析。结果表明，所研究区域的环境承载力受到经济发展模式、资源利用效率及生态保护力度的显著影响，且存在明显的空间异质性。通过情景模拟发现，优化产业结构、提升技术效率以及强化政策引导能够有效缓解环境压力，提高区域承载能力。本研究创新性地将动态模拟与空间分析相结合，揭示了环境承载力的时间演变与空间分布特征，为制定精准化、差异化的可持续发展战略提供了科学依据。研究成果不仅丰富了环境承载力理论，还为区域生态环境治理和经济高质量发展提供了实践指导。
关键词：区域环境承载力；可持续发展路径；系统动力学模型；空间异质性；产业结构优化
Abstract
As global environmental issues become increasingly severe, the assessment of regional environmental carrying capacity has become a crucial foundation for achieving sustainable development. This study aims to construct a scientific evaluation system to analyze the current status of regional environmental carrying capacity and its influencing factors, while proposing targeted pathways for sustainable development. A typical region was selected as a case study, and a combination of system dynamics modeling, geographic information systems (GIS), and multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation methods were employed to conduct dynamic simulations and quantitative analyses of environmental carrying capacity. The results indicate that the environmental carrying capacity of the studied region is significantly influenced by economic development patterns, resource utilization efficiency, and the intensity of ecological conservation efforts, with evident spatial heterogeneity. Through scenario simulations, it was found that optimizing industrial structures, enhancing technological efficiency, and strengthening policy guidance can effectively alleviate environmental pressures and improve regional carrying capacity. Innovatively, this study integrates dynamic simulation with spatial analysis to reveal the temporal evolution and spatial distribution characteristics of environmental carrying capacity, providing a scientific basis for formulating precise and differentiated strategies for sustainable development. The research not only enriches the theoretical fr amework of environmental carrying capacity but also offers practical guidance for regional ecological governance and high-quality economic development.
Keywords：Regional Environmental Carrying Capacity; Sustainable Development Path; System Dynamics Model; Spatial Heterogeneity; Industrial Structure Optimization
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
一、绪论 1
(一) 区域环境承载力评估的研究背景 1
(二) 可持续发展路径的意义与价值 1
(三) 国内外研究现状分析 1
(四) 本文研究方法与技术路线 2
二、区域环境承载力评估体系构建 2
(一) 环境承载力的概念与内涵 2
(二) 承载力评估指标体系设计 3
(三) 数据获取与处理方法 3
(四) 模型选择与适用性分析 4
三、区域环境压力与资源响应分析 4
(一) 自然资源的供给与需求平衡 4
(二) 环境污染对承载力的影响 5
(三) 社会经济活动的环境压力评估 5
(四) 资源环境耦合关系分析 6
四、可持续发展路径优化策略研究 6
(一) 可持续发展的核心要素识别 6
(二) 政策工具在路径优化中的作用 7
(三) 技术创新对可持续发展的推动 7
(四) 区域协同治理模式探讨 8
结 论 9
参考文献 10
