摘要
气候变化已成为全球关注的重大议题，其对城市环境的深远影响促使学者与决策者重新审视传统城市规划模式。本研究以气候变化背景下的城市环境适应性规划为核心，旨在探索如何通过科学方法提升城市的气候韧性。研究选取典型城市作为案例，综合运用地理信息系统（GIS）、气候模型预测和多准则决策分析等技术手段，评估气候变化对城市热岛效应、水资源管理和生态系统服务的潜在影响，并提出针对性的适应性规划策略。结果表明，基于情景模拟的动态规划框架能够显著优化城市空间布局，缓解极端气候事件带来的风险。此外，研究创新性地引入了社会-生态-技术系统整合模型，强调跨学科协作在制定适应性规划中的关键作用。主要贡献在于提出了一个可复制、可量化的适应性规划范式，为其他城市提供参考。该研究不仅丰富了城市气候适应性规划的理论体系，还为相关政策制定提供了科学依据，具有重要的实践意义。
关键词：气候变化适应；城市规划；气候韧性；社会-生态-技术系统；情景模拟
Abstract
Climate change has become a major global concern, and its profound impact on urban environments has prompted scholars and policymakers to reassess traditional urban planning models. This study focuses on urban environmental adaptive planning under the context of climate change, aiming to explore how scientific approaches can enhance urban climate resilience. By selecting typical cities as case studies, the research employs an integrated methodology incorporating geographic information systems (GIS), climate model predictions, and multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on urban heat islands, water resource management, and ecosystem services. Targeted adaptive planning strategies are subsequently proposed. The findings indicate that a dynamic planning fr amework based on scenario simulations can significantly optimize urban spatial layouts and mitigate risks associated with extreme climatic events. Additionally, this study innovatively introduces a socio-ecological-technical system integration model, emphasizing the critical role of interdisciplinary collaboration in developing adaptive planning. The primary contribution lies in proposing a replicable and quantifiable adaptive planning paradigm, offering valuable references for other cities. This research not only enriches the theoretical fr amework of urban climate adaptive planning but also provides a scientific basis for relevant policy formulation, highlighting its significant practical implications.
Keywords：Climate Change Adaptation; Urban Planning; Climate Resilience; Social-Ecological-Technical Systems; Scenario Simulation
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
一、绪论 1
(一) 气候变化与城市环境适应性规划的背景 1
(二) 国内外研究现状与发展趋势 1
(三) 研究方法与技术路线 2
二、气候变化对城市环境的影响评估 2
(一) 城市气候特征及其变化趋势 2
(二) 极端天气事件对城市的冲击 3
(三) 城市生态系统脆弱性分析 3
三、城市环境适应性规划的核心策略 4
(一) 适应性规划的基本原则与框架 4
(二) 绿色基础设施在适应性规划中的作用 5
(三) 城市空间布局优化与气候适应 5
四、适应性规划的实施路径与案例分析 6
(一) 政策支持与制度保障机制 6
(二) 技术创新在适应性规划中的应用 6
(三) 典型城市适应性规划实践案例 7
结 论 9
参考文献 10
