摘 要
工程项目成本估算与控制是现代工程管理中的核心环节，其对项目经济效益和实施效率具有决定性影响。随着工程项目复杂性和规模的不断扩大，传统的成本估算与控制方法已难以满足实际需求，亟需开发更加精确、灵活且适应性强的新方法。本研究以工程项目成本管理为切入点，旨在探索一种集成化、智能化的成本估算与控制方法体系，以提升项目成本管理的科学性和有效性。研究基于系统工程理论和现代管理学原理，结合大数据分析、机器学习算法以及多目标优化技术，构建了一种动态成本估算模型，并提出了涵盖事前预测、过程监控和事后评估的全生命周期成本控制框架。通过实证分析发现，该方法能够显著提高成本估算的准确性，同时有效降低因不确定性因素导致的成本偏差。此外，研究创新性地引入了风险量化分析模块，将潜在风险对成本的影响纳入模型计算，从而增强了方法的鲁棒性和实用性。研究成果不仅为工程项目成本管理提供了新的理论支撑和技术手段，还对推动工程管理领域的数字化转型具有重要意义。总体而言，本研究在方法论层面实现了从静态到动态、从单一到综合的突破，为行业实践提供了可操作性强的解决方案。
关键词：工程项目成本管理；动态成本估算模型；全生命周期成本控制；风险量化分析；机器学习算法
Abstract
Cost estimation and control in engineering projects constitute a core component of modern engineering management, exerting decisive influence on project economic benefits and implementation efficiency. As the complexity and scale of engineering projects continue to expand, traditional cost estimation and control methods are increasingly unable to meet practical requirements, necessitating the development of more precise, flexible, and adaptable approaches. This study focuses on engineering project cost management, aiming to explore an integrated and intelligent system for cost estimation and control to enhance the scientific rigor and effectiveness of project cost management. Grounded in systems engineering theory and modern management principles, this research combines big data analytics, machine learning algorithms, and multi-ob jective optimization techniques to construct a dynamic cost estimation model. Additionally, it proposes a full lifecycle cost control fr amework encompassing pre-project prediction, process monitoring, and post-project evaluation. Empirical analysis demonstrates that this approach significantly improves the accuracy of cost estimation while effectively reducing cost deviations caused by uncertain factors. Furthermore, the study innovatively incorporates a risk quantification analysis module, integrating the impact of potential risks into model calculations, thereby enhancing the robustness and practicality of the method. The findings not only provide new theoretical support and technical tools for engineering project cost management but also hold significant implications for advancing digital transformation in the field of engineering management. Overall, this research achieves breakthroughs at the methodological level, transitioning from static to dynamic and from single-dimensional to comprehensive approaches, offering highly operational solutions for industry practice.
Keywords: Engineering Project Cost Management; Dynamic Cost Estimation Model; Whole Life Cycle Cost Control; Risk Quantification Analysis; Machine Learning Algorithm
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1工程项目成本估算与控制的研究背景 1
1.2工程项目成本估算与控制的研究意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状分析 1
1.4本文研究方法与技术路线 2
2工程项目成本估算方法研究 2
2.1成本估算的基本概念与原则 2
2.2常用成本估算方法的比较分析 3
2.3数据驱动的成本估算模型构建 3
2.4不确定性条件下的成本估算优化 4
2.5成本估算方法的实际应用案例 4
3工程项目成本控制策略研究 5
3.1成本控制的核心要素与框架 5
3.2动态成本监控的技术手段 5
3.3风险管理在成本控制中的作用 6
3.4成本偏差分析与纠正措施制定 6
3.5成本控制的信息化工具应用 7
4工程项目成本估算与控制的综合研究 7
4.1成本估算与控制的协同机制 7
4.2整体成本管理流程的设计与优化 8
4.3典型工程项目成本管理案例分析 8
4.4成本估算与控制的效果评估方法 9
4.5提升成本管理效率的关键对策 9
结论 10
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
