农产品价格波动对农民种植决策的影响分析
摘 要
农产品价格波动是影响农民种植决策的重要因素，其研究对于优化农业资源配置和保障粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究以农户行为理论为基础，结合中国农业生产实际情况，通过构建计量经济模型分析价格波动对农民种植决策的影响机制。研究采用2015年至2022年的面板数据，运用固定效应模型和随机效应模型进行实证分析，并引入期望收益、风险规避等变量以捕捉农民决策的心理特征。结果显示，农产品价格波动显著影响农民的种植选择，尤其是高波动性作物更容易引发种植面积的调整；同时，农民倾向于选择收益稳定但相对低风险的作物。本研究的创新点在于将心理预期与实际收益相结合，揭示了价格波动在不同区域和作物类型间的异质性影响。研究结论为政府制定精准化的农业支持政策提供了理论依据，有助于引导农民合理配置生产要素并降低市场风险。
关键词：农产品价格波动；农民种植决策；期望收益；风险规避
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON FARMERS' PLANTING DECISIONS
ABSTRACT
The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is a critical factor influencing farmers' planting decisions, and its study is of great significance for optimizing the allocation of agricultural resources and ensuring food security. Based on the theory of household behavior and combined with the actual situation of agricultural production in China, this study constructs an econometric model to analyze the impact mechanism of price fluctuations on farmers' planting decisions. Panel data from 2015 to 2022 are employed, and empirical analyses are conducted using both fixed-effects and random-effects models. Variables such as expected returns and risk aversion are introduced to capture the psychological characteristics of farmers' decision-making. The results indicate that fluctuations in agricultural product prices significantly affect farmers' planting choices, particularly for crops with high volatility, which are more likely to trigger adjustments in planting areas. Meanwhile, farmers tend to select crops with stable returns but relatively lower risks. The innovation of this study lies in integrating psychological expectations with actual returns, revealing the heterogeneous impacts of price fluctuations across different regions and crop types. The conclusions provide a theoretical basis for the government to formulate precise agricultural support policies, contributing to guiding farmers in reasonably allocating production factors and reducing market risks.
KEY WORDS：Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation；Farmers' Planting Decision；Expected Revenue；Risk Aversion
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第一章 绪论 1
1.1 农产品价格波动的研究背景与意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状综述 1
第二章 农产品价格波动的形成机制分析 2
2.1 价格波动的主要驱动因素 2
2.2 市场供需对价格波动的影响 2
2.3 政策因素在价格波动中的作用 3
第三章 农民种植决策的行为特征分析 4
3.1 种植决策的基本影响因素 4
3.2 风险规避心理对决策的作用 4
3.3 过往经验与信息获取对决策的影响 5
第四章 农产品价格波动对种植决策的具体影响 6
4.1 价格波动对作物选择的影响 6
4.2 不同价格水平下的种植规模调整 6
4.3 长期价格趋势对农民预期的塑造 7
结 论 8
参考文献 9
致 谢 10
摘 要
农产品价格波动是影响农民种植决策的重要因素，其研究对于优化农业资源配置和保障粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究以农户行为理论为基础，结合中国农业生产实际情况，通过构建计量经济模型分析价格波动对农民种植决策的影响机制。研究采用2015年至2022年的面板数据，运用固定效应模型和随机效应模型进行实证分析，并引入期望收益、风险规避等变量以捕捉农民决策的心理特征。结果显示，农产品价格波动显著影响农民的种植选择，尤其是高波动性作物更容易引发种植面积的调整；同时，农民倾向于选择收益稳定但相对低风险的作物。本研究的创新点在于将心理预期与实际收益相结合，揭示了价格波动在不同区域和作物类型间的异质性影响。研究结论为政府制定精准化的农业支持政策提供了理论依据，有助于引导农民合理配置生产要素并降低市场风险。
关键词：农产品价格波动；农民种植决策；期望收益；风险规避
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON FARMERS' PLANTING DECISIONS
ABSTRACT
The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is a critical factor influencing farmers' planting decisions, and its study is of great significance for optimizing the allocation of agricultural resources and ensuring food security. Based on the theory of household behavior and combined with the actual situation of agricultural production in China, this study constructs an econometric model to analyze the impact mechanism of price fluctuations on farmers' planting decisions. Panel data from 2015 to 2022 are employed, and empirical analyses are conducted using both fixed-effects and random-effects models. Variables such as expected returns and risk aversion are introduced to capture the psychological characteristics of farmers' decision-making. The results indicate that fluctuations in agricultural product prices significantly affect farmers' planting choices, particularly for crops with high volatility, which are more likely to trigger adjustments in planting areas. Meanwhile, farmers tend to select crops with stable returns but relatively lower risks. The innovation of this study lies in integrating psychological expectations with actual returns, revealing the heterogeneous impacts of price fluctuations across different regions and crop types. The conclusions provide a theoretical basis for the government to formulate precise agricultural support policies, contributing to guiding farmers in reasonably allocating production factors and reducing market risks.
KEY WORDS：Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation；Farmers' Planting Decision；Expected Revenue；Risk Aversion
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第一章 绪论 1
1.1 农产品价格波动的研究背景与意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状综述 1
第二章 农产品价格波动的形成机制分析 2
2.1 价格波动的主要驱动因素 2
2.2 市场供需对价格波动的影响 2
2.3 政策因素在价格波动中的作用 3
第三章 农民种植决策的行为特征分析 4
3.1 种植决策的基本影响因素 4
3.2 风险规避心理对决策的作用 4
3.3 过往经验与信息获取对决策的影响 5
第四章 农产品价格波动对种植决策的具体影响 6
4.1 价格波动对作物选择的影响 6
4.2 不同价格水平下的种植规模调整 6
4.3 长期价格趋势对农民预期的塑造 7
结 论 8
参考文献 9
致 谢 10
