摘 要
农业资源环境承载力是实现区域可持续发展的重要基础，其评估与优化对于推动人地关系协调具有重要意义。本研究以农业资源环境承载力为核心，结合区域协调发展理论，旨在构建科学的评估体系并提出针对性的调控策略。研究选取典型农业区域为案例，综合运用系统分析、空间统计和情景模拟等方法，从资源禀赋、生态环境和社会经济三个维度对承载力进行量化评估。结果表明，不同区域的农业资源环境承载力存在显著差异，主要受水资源分布、土地利用效率及污染排放水平等因素影响。通过情景模拟发现，优化资源配置和加强环境保护能够有效提升承载力水平，从而促进区域协调发展。本研究创新性地将动态评估与情景预测相结合，提出了基于承载力的区域协调发展路径，并强调了跨区域协作的重要性。研究成果为制定精准化农业政策提供了科学依据，同时为其他类似区域的可持续发展实践提供了参考范式。
关键词：区域协调发展；情景模拟；资源配置；环境保护
Abstract
The carrying capacity of agricultural resources and environment is a critical foundation for achieving regional sustainable development, and its evaluation and optimization play a significant role in promoting the harmonization of human-land relationships. This study focuses on the carrying capacity of agricultural resources and environment, integrating the theory of coordinated regional development to construct a scientific evaluation system and propose targeted regulation strategies. A typical agricultural region was selected as a case study, employing a combination of systems analysis, spatial statistics, and scenario simulation to quantitatively assess the carrying capacity from three dimensions: resource endowment, ecological environment, and socio-economic conditions. The results indicate that there are significant differences in the carrying capacity of agricultural resources and environment across different regions, primarily influenced by factors such as water resource distribution, land use efficiency, and pollution emission levels. Through scenario simulation, it was found that optimizing resource allocation and enhancing environmental protection can effectively improve the level of carrying capacity, thereby promoting coordinated regional development. Innovatively, this study combines dynamic evaluation with scenario prediction to propose a path for coordinated regional development based on carrying capacity, emphasizing the importance of cross-regional collaboration. The research findings provide a scientific basis for formulating precise agricultural policies and offer a reference paradigm for sustainable development practices in other similar regions.
Keywords：Regional Coordinated Development；Scenario Simulation；Resource Allocation；Environmental Protection
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
引 言 1
第一章 农业资源环境承载力评估框架 2
1.1 承载力评估的概念界定 2
1.2 评估指标体系的构建原则 2
1.3 数据来源与处理方法 3
第二章 区域农业资源环境现状分析 4
2.1 土地资源的空间分布特征 4
2.2 水资源利用效率评价 4
2.3 生态环境压力识别 5
2.4 区域差异性分析 5
第三章 承载力评估结果与问题诊断 7
3.1 不同区域的承载力分级 7
3.2 资源环境超载区特征分析 7
3.3 承载力薄弱环节识别 8
3.4 制约因素的综合评估 8
第四章 区域协调发展策略研究 10
4.1 协调发展的理论基础 10
4.2 资源优化配置路径设计 10
4.3 环境治理与生态保护措施 11
4.4 政策支持体系的构建 11
结 论 13
参考文献 14
致 谢 15
农业资源环境承载力是实现区域可持续发展的重要基础，其评估与优化对于推动人地关系协调具有重要意义。本研究以农业资源环境承载力为核心，结合区域协调发展理论，旨在构建科学的评估体系并提出针对性的调控策略。研究选取典型农业区域为案例，综合运用系统分析、空间统计和情景模拟等方法，从资源禀赋、生态环境和社会经济三个维度对承载力进行量化评估。结果表明，不同区域的农业资源环境承载力存在显著差异，主要受水资源分布、土地利用效率及污染排放水平等因素影响。通过情景模拟发现，优化资源配置和加强环境保护能够有效提升承载力水平，从而促进区域协调发展。本研究创新性地将动态评估与情景预测相结合，提出了基于承载力的区域协调发展路径，并强调了跨区域协作的重要性。研究成果为制定精准化农业政策提供了科学依据，同时为其他类似区域的可持续发展实践提供了参考范式。
关键词：区域协调发展；情景模拟；资源配置；环境保护
Abstract
The carrying capacity of agricultural resources and environment is a critical foundation for achieving regional sustainable development, and its evaluation and optimization play a significant role in promoting the harmonization of human-land relationships. This study focuses on the carrying capacity of agricultural resources and environment, integrating the theory of coordinated regional development to construct a scientific evaluation system and propose targeted regulation strategies. A typical agricultural region was selected as a case study, employing a combination of systems analysis, spatial statistics, and scenario simulation to quantitatively assess the carrying capacity from three dimensions: resource endowment, ecological environment, and socio-economic conditions. The results indicate that there are significant differences in the carrying capacity of agricultural resources and environment across different regions, primarily influenced by factors such as water resource distribution, land use efficiency, and pollution emission levels. Through scenario simulation, it was found that optimizing resource allocation and enhancing environmental protection can effectively improve the level of carrying capacity, thereby promoting coordinated regional development. Innovatively, this study combines dynamic evaluation with scenario prediction to propose a path for coordinated regional development based on carrying capacity, emphasizing the importance of cross-regional collaboration. The research findings provide a scientific basis for formulating precise agricultural policies and offer a reference paradigm for sustainable development practices in other similar regions.
Keywords：Regional Coordinated Development；Scenario Simulation；Resource Allocation；Environmental Protection
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
引 言 1
第一章 农业资源环境承载力评估框架 2
1.1 承载力评估的概念界定 2
1.2 评估指标体系的构建原则 2
1.3 数据来源与处理方法 3
第二章 区域农业资源环境现状分析 4
2.1 土地资源的空间分布特征 4
2.2 水资源利用效率评价 4
2.3 生态环境压力识别 5
2.4 区域差异性分析 5
第三章 承载力评估结果与问题诊断 7
3.1 不同区域的承载力分级 7
3.2 资源环境超载区特征分析 7
3.3 承载力薄弱环节识别 8
3.4 制约因素的综合评估 8
第四章 区域协调发展策略研究 10
4.1 协调发展的理论基础 10
4.2 资源优化配置路径设计 10
4.3 环境治理与生态保护措施 11
4.4 政策支持体系的构建 11
结 论 13
参考文献 14
致 谢 15
