贸易政策不确定性对企业出口决策的影响机制
摘 要
在全球经济一体化背景下，贸易政策不确定性作为影响企业出口决策的重要因素，日益受到学术界和政策制定者的关注。本研究旨在探讨贸易政策不确定性对企业出口决策的具体影响机制，并分析其作用路径与调节效应。通过构建理论模型并结合2010年至2020年间中国制造业企业的微观数据，采用固定效应模型和工具变量法进行实证分析。研究发现，贸易政策不确定性显著抑制了企业出口规模的扩张，并降低了出口参与概率，这种抑制效应在中小企业和高不确定性敏感行业更为突出。进一步分析表明，贸易政策不确定性主要通过成本增加、需求预期下降以及风险规避三条路径影响企业出口决策，而金融支持和区域贸易协定则在一定程度上缓解了这一负面影响。本研究的创新点在于首次将企业异质性纳入分析框架，并从成本、需求和风险三个维度系统揭示了贸易政策不确定性的传导机制，为相关政策制定提供了理论依据和实践参考。
关键词：贸易政策不确定性 企业出口决策 成本增加
Abstract
In the context of global economic integration, trade policy uncertainty has increasingly drawn attention from both academia and policymakers as a critical factor influencing firms' export decisions. This study aims to explore the specific impact mechanisms of trade policy uncertainty on firms' export decisions and analyze its transmission channels and moderating effects. By constructing a theoretical model and utilizing micro-level data of Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 2010 to 2020, we conduct an empirical analysis using fixed-effects models and instrumental variable approaches. The findings indicate that trade policy uncertainty significantly suppresses the expansion of firms' export scale and reduces the probability of export participation, with this inhibitory effect being more pronounced for small and medium-sized enterprises and industries highly sensitive to uncertainty. Further analysis reveals that trade policy uncertainty primarily affects firms' export decisions through three pathways: increased costs, reduced demand expectations, and risk aversion. Financial support and regional trade agreements are found to partially mitigate these negative impacts. The novelty of this study lies in its incorporation of firm heterogeneity into the analytical fr amework and its systematic revelation of the transmission mechanisms of trade policy uncertainty from the dimensions of cost, demand, and risk. These insights provide theoretical foundations and practical implications for relevant policy formulation.
Keyword:Trade Policy Uncertainty Firm Export Decision Cost Increase
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1贸易政策不确定性研究背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状综述 1
1.3研究方法与技术路线 1
1.4研究目的和内容 2
2贸易政策不确定性的理论基础 2
2.1贸易政策不确定性的概念界定 2
2.2企业出口决策的理论框架 3
2.3不确定性对企业行为的影响机制 3
3贸易政策不确定性对出口决策的作用路径 4
3.1成本效应与企业出口意愿 4
3.2风险规避与出口市场选择 4
3.3政策预期与长期出口策略 5
4实证分析：贸易政策不确定性与企业出口决策 5
4.1数据来源与变量选取 5
4.2模型构建与假设检验 6
4.3实证结果分析与讨论 6
结论 6
参考文献 8
致谢 9
摘 要
在全球经济一体化背景下，贸易政策不确定性作为影响企业出口决策的重要因素，日益受到学术界和政策制定者的关注。本研究旨在探讨贸易政策不确定性对企业出口决策的具体影响机制，并分析其作用路径与调节效应。通过构建理论模型并结合2010年至2020年间中国制造业企业的微观数据，采用固定效应模型和工具变量法进行实证分析。研究发现，贸易政策不确定性显著抑制了企业出口规模的扩张，并降低了出口参与概率，这种抑制效应在中小企业和高不确定性敏感行业更为突出。进一步分析表明，贸易政策不确定性主要通过成本增加、需求预期下降以及风险规避三条路径影响企业出口决策，而金融支持和区域贸易协定则在一定程度上缓解了这一负面影响。本研究的创新点在于首次将企业异质性纳入分析框架，并从成本、需求和风险三个维度系统揭示了贸易政策不确定性的传导机制，为相关政策制定提供了理论依据和实践参考。
关键词：贸易政策不确定性 企业出口决策 成本增加
Abstract
In the context of global economic integration, trade policy uncertainty has increasingly drawn attention from both academia and policymakers as a critical factor influencing firms' export decisions. This study aims to explore the specific impact mechanisms of trade policy uncertainty on firms' export decisions and analyze its transmission channels and moderating effects. By constructing a theoretical model and utilizing micro-level data of Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 2010 to 2020, we conduct an empirical analysis using fixed-effects models and instrumental variable approaches. The findings indicate that trade policy uncertainty significantly suppresses the expansion of firms' export scale and reduces the probability of export participation, with this inhibitory effect being more pronounced for small and medium-sized enterprises and industries highly sensitive to uncertainty. Further analysis reveals that trade policy uncertainty primarily affects firms' export decisions through three pathways: increased costs, reduced demand expectations, and risk aversion. Financial support and regional trade agreements are found to partially mitigate these negative impacts. The novelty of this study lies in its incorporation of firm heterogeneity into the analytical fr amework and its systematic revelation of the transmission mechanisms of trade policy uncertainty from the dimensions of cost, demand, and risk. These insights provide theoretical foundations and practical implications for relevant policy formulation.
Keyword:Trade Policy Uncertainty Firm Export Decision Cost Increase
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1贸易政策不确定性研究背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状综述 1
1.3研究方法与技术路线 1
1.4研究目的和内容 2
2贸易政策不确定性的理论基础 2
2.1贸易政策不确定性的概念界定 2
2.2企业出口决策的理论框架 3
2.3不确定性对企业行为的影响机制 3
3贸易政策不确定性对出口决策的作用路径 4
3.1成本效应与企业出口意愿 4
3.2风险规避与出口市场选择 4
3.3政策预期与长期出口策略 5
4实证分析：贸易政策不确定性与企业出口决策 5
4.1数据来源与变量选取 5
4.2模型构建与假设检验 6
4.3实证结果分析与讨论 6
结论 6
参考文献 8
致谢 9
