有限空间作业风险动态评估模型构建 -安全工程专业

摘要

有限空间作业因其复杂多变的环境和潜在风险，已成为工业安全领域的重要研究课题。为提高有限空间作业风险管理的科学性和有效性，本研究基于动态风险评估理论，构建了一种适用于有限空间作业的风险动态评估模型。研究首先分析了有限空间作业的主要风险源及其动态特性，明确了时间、环境和人为因素对风险演变的影响机制；其次，结合层次分析法与模糊综合评价方法，设计了包含风险识别、量化及动态更新的完整评估流程，并引入实时监测数据以增强模型的适应性与灵敏度。通过案例验证，该模型能够准确反映有限空间作业中风险的变化趋势，为决策者提供及时的风险预警和控制建议。研究表明，所构建的模型不仅有效整合了静态与动态风险因素，还显著提升了风险评估的精准性和时效性，为有限空间作业的安全管理提供了新的技术支撑。本研究的主要创新点在于将动态评估理念与多源数据融合技术相结合，突破了传统静态评估方法的局限性，为类似高风险场景的安全管理研究奠定了理论基础。

关键词：有限空间作业；动态风险评估；层次分析法；模糊综合评价；多源数据融合

ABSTRACT

Finite space operations have become an important research topic in industrial safety due to their complex and variable environments as well as potential risks. To enhance the scientific rigor and effectiveness of risk management in finite space operations, this study develops a dynamic risk assessment model tailored for such operations based on dynamic risk assessment theory. The study first analyzes the primary risk sources in finite space operations along with their dynamic characteristics, elucidating the influence mechanisms of time, environmental factors, and human elements on risk evolution. Subsequently, by integrating analytic hierarchy process with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods, a comprehensive assessment procedure is designed, encompassing risk identification, quantification, and dynamic updates, while incorporating real-time monitoring data to improve the model's adaptability and sensitivity. Case validation demonstrates that the model can accurately reflect the changing trends of risks in finite space operations, providing decision-makers with timely risk warnings and control recommendations. This research shows that the constructed model not only effectively integrates static and dynamic risk factors but also significantly enhances the precision and timeliness of risk assessments, offering new technical support for the safety management of finite space operations. The main innovation of this study lies in combining dynamic assessment concepts with multi-source data fusion technology, overcoming the limitations of traditional static assessment methods, and laying a theoretical foundation for safety management research in similar high-risk scenarios.

Keywords: Confined Space Operation; Dynamic Risk Assessment; Analytic Hierarchy Process; Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation; Multi-Source Data Fusion

摘要 I

ABSTRACT II

第1章绪论 1

1.1 有限空间作业风险研究背景与意义 1

1.2 国内外动态评估模型研究现状 1

1.3 本文研究方法与技术路线 2

第2章有限空间作业风险特征分析 3

2.1 有限空间作业环境特性识别 3

2.2 风险源分类与动态变化机制 3

2.3 风险特征对评估模型的影响 4

第3章动态评估模型构建理论基础 5