摘要
随着经济全球化的深入发展，跨国资本流动已成为全球经济运行的重要特征之一，其对各国经济增长、金融稳定及资源配置效率的影响日益显著。本研究旨在探讨跨国资本流动的驱动机制及其对全球经济的多维度影响，并分析由此带来的机遇与挑战。通过构建基于面板数据的计量经济学模型，结合2000年至2022年间150个国家和地区的相关数据，研究发现跨国资本流动在促进经济增长的同时，也加剧了金融市场的波动性和系统性风险。此外，资本流动的非均衡分布进一步扩大了国家间的经济不平等。本研究创新性地引入了资本流动质量指数（CFQI）以评估资本流动的结构优化程度，并揭示了高质量资本流动对可持续发展的积极作用。研究表明，政策协调与国际合作是应对跨国资本流动挑战的关键路径。主要贡献在于提出了衡量资本流动质量的新方法，并为完善全球金融治理体系提供了理论支持与政策建议，从而为实现更加包容和稳定的全球经济秩序奠定了基础。
关键词：跨国资本流动；资本流动质量指数；金融稳定；经济不平等；政策协调
Abstract
With the deepening of economic globalization, the flow of transnational capital has become one of the key characteristics of global economic operations, exerting increasingly significant impacts on economic growth, financial stability, and the efficiency of resource allocation across countries. This study aims to explore the driving mechanisms of transnational capital flows and their multidimensional effects on the global economy, as well as to analyze the opportunities and challenges they bring. By constructing an econometric model based on panel data and incorporating relevant data from 150 countries and regions between 2000 and 2022, the study finds that while transnational capital flows contribute to economic growth, they also exacerbate market volatility and systemic risks in financial systems. Moreover, the uneven distribution of capital flows further widens economic inequalities among nations. Innovatively, this research introduces the Capital Flow Quality Index (CFQI) to evaluate the degree of structural optimization in capital flows and reveals the positive role of high-quality capital flows in promoting sustainable development. The findings indicate that policy coordination and international cooperation are critical pathways to addressing the challenges posed by transnational capital flows. The primary contributions of this study include proposing a new method for measuring the quality of capital flows and providing theoretical support and policy recommendations for improving the global financial governance system, thereby laying the foundation for a more inclusive and stable global economic order.
Keywords：Multinational Capital Flow; Capital Flow Quality Index; Financial Stability; Economic Inequality; Policy Coordination
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
一、绪论 1
(一) 跨国资本流动的研究背景与意义 1
(二) 全球经济视角下的研究现状综述 1
(三) 本文研究方法与理论框架构建 2
二、跨国资本流动的驱动机制与模式分析 2
(一) 跨国资本流动的主要驱动因素 2
(二) 不同类型跨国资本流动的特点与模式 3
(三) 技术进步对跨国资本流动的影响 3
三、跨国资本流动对全球经济的积极影响 4
(一) 提升资源配置效率的作用机制 4
(二) 推动经济增长的具体表现 5
(三) 促进国际贸易与投资的协同效应 5
四、跨国资本流动带来的挑战与风险分析 6
(一) 资本流动波动性对经济稳定性的冲击 6
(二) 发展中国家面临的特殊风险与困境 6
(三) 全球金融体系中的系统性风险传导 7
结 论 8
参考文献 9
