摘要
在全球金融市场一体化不断深化的背景下，金融风险的跨国传导已成为影响全球经济稳定的重要因素。本研究旨在探讨全球金融市场一体化趋势下金融风险传导的内在机制及其影响路径。通过构建基于复杂网络理论和动态条件相关性模型（DCC-GARCH）的分析框架，结合2010年至2022年间主要国家和地区金融市场的高频数据，研究揭示了金融风险在不同市场间的传播规律及关键驱动因素。结果表明，全球金融市场的一体化显著增强了风险传导的效率与强度，而系统性重要性金融机构和核心市场在风险传播中扮演着关键角色。此外，研究发现地缘政治事件、货币政策差异以及跨境资本流动等因素对风险传导路径具有显著调节作用。本研究的创新点在于首次将复杂网络分析方法与动态相关性模型相结合，为理解金融风险的非线性传导提供了新视角，并提出了针对性的风险管理建议。研究结论对完善国际金融监管体系、防范系统性金融风险具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。
关键词：全球金融市场一体化；金融风险传导；复杂网络理论；DCC-GARCH模型；系统性风险
Abstract
In the context of deepening global financial market integration, the cross-border transmission of financial risks has become a critical factor affecting global economic stability. This study aims to explore the intrinsic mechanisms and influence pathways of financial risk transmission under the trend of global financial market integration. By constructing an analytical fr amework based on complex network theory and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model (DCC-GARCH), combined with high-frequency data from major countries and regions' financial markets between 2010 and 2022, this research reveals the transmission patterns of financial risks across different markets and their key driving factors. The results indicate that the integration of global financial markets significantly enhances the efficiency and intensity of risk transmission, with systemically important financial institutions and core markets playing crucial roles in this process. Furthermore, it is found that geopolitical events, differences in monetary policies, and cross-border capital flows exert significant moderating effects on the pathways of risk transmission. A key innovation of this study lies in its pioneering combination of complex network analysis methods with dynamic correlation models, offering a new perspective for understanding the nonlinear transmission of financial risks and proposing targeted risk management recommendations. The conclusions of this study hold important theoretical and practical implications for improving the international financial regulatory system and preventing systemic financial risks.
Keywords：Global Financial Market Integration; Financial Risk Transmission; Complex Network Theory; Dcc-Garch Model; Systemic Risk
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
一、绪论 1
(一) 全球金融市场一体化背景分析 1
(二) 金融风险传导机制研究的意义 1
(三) 国内外研究现状综述 2
二、全球金融市场一体化趋势分析 2
(一) 金融市场一体化的内涵与特征 2
(二) 一体化趋势对金融体系的影响 3
(三) 主要经济体的一体化进程对比 4
三、金融风险传导机制的理论框架 4
(一) 风险传导的基本原理与路径 4
(二) 不同市场间的联动性分析 5
(三) 关键传导因素识别与评估 5
四、实证分析：金融风险传导的案例研究 6
(一) 数据选取与模型构建 6
(二) 案例分析 6
(三) 结果讨论与政策启示全球金融市场一体化趋势下的金融风险传导机制具有显著的复杂性和动态性 7
结 论 8
参考文献 9
