摘要
金融衍生品市场作为现代金融市场的重要组成部分，其对实体经济的影响已成为学术界和实务界的关注焦点。本文旨在探讨金融衍生品市场的运行机制及其对实体经济的双重影响，通过构建理论分析框架并结合实证研究方法，深入剖析金融衍生品在风险管理与投机行为之间的平衡作用。研究基于2010年至2022年间全球主要经济体的金融衍生品交易数据，采用面板数据分析与事件研究法相结合的方式，评估了金融衍生品市场波动对实体企业投资、生产及盈利能力的具体影响。结果表明，金融衍生品市场在为企业提供风险对冲工具的同时，也可能因过度投机而加剧经济波动，特别是在金融危机等极端情境下，其负面效应尤为显著。本文的创新点在于引入动态交互模型，量化了金融衍生品市场与实体经济之间的非线性关系，并揭示了不同监管政策对这一关系的调节作用。研究表明，适度的市场监管和透明的交易规则能够有效降低金融衍生品市场的负外部性，从而促进其对实体经济的正向支持功能。这一发现为完善金融衍生品市场监管体系提供了重要参考，同时也强调了金融稳定与实体经济发展之间的协同关系。
关键词：金融衍生品市场；实体经济影响；风险管理；投机行为；市场监管
Abstract
As an essential component of modern financial markets, the financial derivatives market and its impact on the real economy have become a focal point for both academia and practice. This paper aims to explore the operational mechanisms of the financial derivatives market and its dual effects on the real economy by constructing a theoretical analytical fr amework combined with empirical research methods, analyzing in depth the balancing role of financial derivatives between risk management and speculative behavior. Based on financial derivatives trading data from major global economies between 2010 and 2022, this study employs a combination of panel data analysis and event study methodology to evaluate the specific impacts of financial derivatives market volatility on real enterprises' investment, production, and profitability. The results indicate that while the financial derivatives market provides risk hedging tools for enterprises, it may also exacerbate economic fluctuations due to excessive speculation, particularly under extreme conditions such as financial crises, where its negative effects are more pronounced. The innovation of this paper lies in the introduction of a dynamic interaction model, which quantifies the nonlinear relationship between the financial derivatives market and the real economy and reveals the moderating role of different regulatory policies on this relationship. The study demonstrates that moderate market regulation and transparent trading rules can effectively reduce the negative externalities of the financial derivatives market, thereby promoting its positive supporting function for the real economy. This finding provides significant reference for improving the regulatory system of financial derivatives markets and underscores the synergistic relationship between financial stability and the development of the real economy.
Keywords：Financial Derivatives Market; Impact On Real Economy; Risk Management; Speculative Behavior; Market Regulation
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
一、绪论 1
(一) 金融衍生品市场与实体经济的关联背景 1
(二) 国内外研究现状综述 1
(三) 研究方法与技术路线 2
二、金融衍生品市场的功能分析 2
(一) 风险管理功能对实体经济的作用 2
(二) 价格发现机制对实体经济的影响 3
(三) 市场流动性对实体经济的支持 3
三、金融衍生品对实体经济的正面影响 4
(一) 提升企业风险管理能力 4
(二) 促进资本配置效率提升 4
(三) 推动产业结构优化升级 5
四、金融衍生品对实体经济的负面影响 6
(一) 加剧市场波动性风险 6
(二) 引发系统性金融风险 6
(三) 对中小企业发展的潜在制约 7
结 论 8
参考文献 9
