摘 要
随着大数据技术的快速发展及其在公共政策领域的广泛应用，地方财税政策的评估方法亟需创新以适应新时代需求。本研究旨在通过整合大数据分析技术与传统政策评估框架，构建一套科学、系统的地方财税政策评估体系。研究选取了全国多个典型地区作为样本，利用多源数据融合技术对地方财税政策实施效果进行量化分析，并结合机器学习算法挖掘政策执行中的潜在规律及影响因素。结果表明，大数据驱动的评估方法能够显著提升政策效果评估的精确性和时效性，同时揭示出传统方法难以发现的深层次问题。例如，研究发现税收优惠政策的实际受益群体与政策设计初衷存在一定偏差，且区域间政策协同效应不足是制约整体效能的重要原因。本研究的主要贡献在于首次提出基于大数据视角的地方财税政策动态评估模型，为政策制定者提供了更为全面和客观的决策依据，同时也为后续相关研究奠定了理论与实践基础。该研究不仅推动了财税政策评估方法的创新，还为实现精准化、智能化的政策管理提供了重要参考。
关键词：地方财税政策；大数据分析；政策评估体系；机器学习算法；动态评估模型
Assessment of Local Fiscal and Tax Policies from the Perspective of Big Data
Abstract: With the rapid development of big data technology and its extensive application in the field of public policy, there is an urgent need to innovate the evaluation methods of local fiscal and taxation policies to meet the demands of the new era. This study aims to construct a scientific and systematic evaluation system for local fiscal and taxation policies by integrating big data analytics with traditional policy evaluation fr ameworks. Multiple typical regions across the country were selected as samples, and multi-source data fusion technology was employed to conduct quantitative analysis of the implementation effects of local fiscal and taxation policies. Additionally, machine learning algorithms were utilized to uncover potential patterns and influencing factors during policy execution. The results indicate that big data-driven evaluation methods can significantly enhance the accuracy and timeliness of policy effectiveness assessments while revealing deeper-level issues that are difficult to identify through conventional approaches. For instance, the study found that there is a certain discrepancy between the actual beneficiaries of tax preferential policies and the original design intentions, and insufficient inter-regional policy synergy is a critical factor constraining overall efficiency. The primary contribution of this research lies in proposing a dynamic evaluation model for local fiscal and taxation policies from a big data perspective for the first time, providing policymakers with more comprehensive and ob jective decision-making references. It also lays a theoretical and practical foundation for subsequent related studies. This research not only promotes the innovation of evaluation methods for fiscal and taxation policies but also offers significant insights into achieving precise and intelligent policy management.
Keywords: Local Fiscal Tax Policy; Big Data Analysis; Policy Evaluation System; Machine Learning Algorithm; Dynamic Evaluation Model
目 录
一、绪论 1
（一）研究背景与意义 1
（二）国内外研究现状综述 1
（三）研究方法与技术路线 2
二、大数据在地方财税政策评估中的应用基础 2
（一）大数据技术的核心特征分析 2
（二）地方财税政策的数据需求特点 3
（三）数据驱动的政策评估框架构建 3
三、地方财税政策评估的大数据分析方法 4
（一）数据采集与预处理技术 4
（二）基于大数据的政策效果量化评估 4
（三）数据挖掘在政策优化中的应用 5
四、实证研究：基于大数据的地方财税政策评估案例分析 5
（一）案例选择与数据来源 5
（二）政策评估的具体实施过程 6
（三）评估结果及改进建议 6
结论 7
参考文献 8
致 谢 9
