农村地区电力负荷的分布特征与分析 -电气工程及其自动化专业

摘要

农村地区电力负荷的分布特征与分析旨在探讨我国农村地区电力负荷的空间分布规律及其影响因素，为优化农村电网规划提供理论依据。随着乡村振兴战略的推进，农村电气化进程加快，电力需求日益增长且复杂化，但现有研究多集中于城市或工业领域，对农村地区电力负荷特性关注不足。本研究基于2018 - 2022年全国31个省份农村地区的电力负荷数据，采用空间统计分析、聚类分析等方法，从时间维度和空间维度深入剖析农村电力负荷分布特征。研究表明，农村电力负荷存在明显的季节性和昼夜波动性，冬季取暖期和夏季制冷期负荷峰值明显高于其他时段；不同地理区域间电力负荷差异显著，东部沿海发达地区负荷密度远超中西部地区。创新点在于首次构建了涵盖经济发展水平、人口密度、产业结构等多维度指标体系来量化影响因素，并通过实证分析发现经济发展水平与电力负荷呈正相关关系，而人口密度的影响相对有限。主要贡献是填补了农村电力负荷特性研究领域的空白，为制定精准的农村电网建设策略提供了科学依据，有助于提高农村电力供应的可靠性和经济性。

关键词：农村电力负荷空间分布特征季节性波动

Abstract

The study on the spatial distribution characteristics and analysis of electricity load in rural areas aims to explore the spatial distribution patterns and influencing factors of electricity load in rural regions of China, providing theoretical support for optimizing rural power grid planning. With the advancement of the rural revitalization strategy, the electrification process in rural areas has accelerated, leading to increasing and complex electricity demand. However, existing research predominantly focuses on urban or industrial sectors, paying insufficient attention to the characteristics of electricity load in rural areas. This study is based on electricity load data from 2018 to 2022 across 31 provinces in rural regions of China, employing spatial statistical analysis and cluster analysis methods to thoroughly examine the distribution characteristics of rural electricity load from both temporal and spatial dimensions. The findings indicate that rural electricity load exhibits pronounced seasonality and diurnal fluctuations, with peak loads during winter heating and summer cooling periods significantly higher than other times. There are also substantial differences in electricity load among different geographical regions, with load density in economically developed eastern coastal areas far exceeding that of central and western regions. An innovation of this study lies in constructing a multi-dimensional indicator system for the first time, encompassing economic development level, population density, industrial structure, and other factors to quantify the influencing factors. Empirical analysis reveals a positive correlation between economic development level and electricity load, while the impact of population density is relatively limited. The primary contribution of this study is filling the gap in research on the characteristics of rural electricity load, offering scientific evidence for formulating precise strategies for rural power grid construction, thereby enhancing the reliability and economic efficiency of rural electricity supply.

Keyword:Rural Electric Load Spatial Distribution Characteristics Seasonal Fluctuations

1绪论 1

1.1农村电力负荷研究的背景与意义 1

1.2国内外研究现状综述 1

1.3研究方法与技术路线 2

2农村电力负荷分布的影响因素 2

2.1地理位置与自然条件影响 2

2.2农村经济发展水平分析 3

2.3居民生活用电特征研究 3

3农村电力负荷的时间特性分析 4

3.1日负荷曲线变化规律 4

3.2季节性负荷波动特征 5