摘 要
电力系统可靠性评估是保障电力供应稳定性的关键环节，随着现代电网规模的不断扩大和负荷结构日益复杂，传统评估方法难以准确反映实际运行状况。为此，本文基于负荷特性开展电力系统可靠性评估研究，旨在建立一种能够全面考虑负荷动态变化特征的评估体系。通过引入时变负荷模型，结合概率统计理论与随机过程分析，构建了涵盖静态与动态特性的综合评估框架。该方法不仅考虑了常规负荷预测误差，还特别关注极端天气、突发事件等非平稳因素对系统可靠性的影响。研究采用蒙特卡罗仿真技术进行大规模场景模拟，验证了所提方法的有效性和优越性。结果表明，相较于传统方法，新模型在不同工况下均能提供更为精确的风险预测，尤其在低负荷时段和高波动场景中表现突出。此外，本文提出的评估指标体系为电网规划提供了科学依据，有助于优化资源配置，提高系统的抗风险能力。通过对典型区域电网的实际案例分析，证明了该方法在工程应用中的可行性和实用性，为电力系统可靠性评估领域提供了新的思路和技术手段。
关键词：电力系统可靠性评估 时变负荷模型 蒙特卡罗仿真
Abstract
Power system reliability assessment is a critical component in ensuring the stability of electricity supply. As modern power grids expand in scale and load structures become increasingly complex, traditional assessment methods struggle to accurately reflect actual operating conditions. To address this challenge, this study focuses on load characteristics to develop a reliability assessment fr amework for power systems that comprehensively considers the dynamic changes in load behavior. By incorporating time-varying load models and integrating probability theory with stochastic process analysis, a holistic evaluation fr amework that encompasses both static and dynamic features is constructed. This approach not only accounts for conventional load forecasting errors but also emphasizes the impact of non-stationary factors such as extreme weather and unexpected events on system reliability. The research employs Monte Carlo simulation techniques for large-scale scenario modeling, thereby validating the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method. Results indicate that, compared to traditional methods, the new model provides more accurate risk predictions under various operating conditions, particularly excelling during low-load periods and high-volatility scenarios. Furthermore, the assessment indicator system introduced in this paper offers a scientific basis for grid planning, aiding in resource optimization and enhancing the system's resilience.
Keyword:Power System Reliability Evaluation Time-Varying Load Model Monte Carlo Simulation
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状 1
1.3研究方法概述 2
2负荷特性分析 2
2.1负荷特性的分类 2
2.2负荷特性数据获取 3
2.3负荷特性对系统影响 3
3可靠性评估模型构建 4
3.1模型构建原则 4
3.2关键参数确定 5
3.3模型验证方法 5
4评估结果与优化策略 6
4.1评估结果分析 6
4.2系统薄弱环节识别 7
4.3优化策略建议 7
结论 8
参考文献 9
致谢 10
