气候变化对亚热带森林物种多样性的影响 -林学专业

摘要

气候变化已成为全球生态系统面临的主要挑战之一，尤其对亚热带森林的物种多样性产生了深远影响。本研究旨在探讨气候变化背景下亚热带森林物种多样性的动态变化及其驱动机制。通过整合长期监测数据与模型模拟，我们分析了过去30年中国亚热带地区森林物种多样性的时空格局。研究发现，气温升高和降水模式的改变显著影响了植物群落的组成和分布，导致部分敏感物种的种群数量下降，而耐旱和耐热物种的多样性有所增加。此外，气候变化还加剧了森林生态系统的脆弱性，尤其是在极端气候事件频发的区域。本研究的创新之处在于首次将多源数据与机器学习算法相结合，构建了高精度的物种多样性预测模型，为未来气候情景下的生态保护提供了科学依据。研究表明，加强森林管理和保护措施对于维持亚热带森林的物种多样性至关重要。未来的研究应进一步关注气候变化与人类活动之间的交互作用，以制定更具针对性的生态恢复策略。

关键词：气候变化；亚热带森林；物种多样性

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SPECIES DIVERSITY IN SUBTROPICAL FORESTS

ABSTRACT

Climate change has become one of the major challenges facing the global ecosystem, with a profound impact on species diversity in subtropical forests in particular. The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamic changes and driving mechanisms of species diversity in subtropical forests under the background of climate change. By integrating long-term monitoring data with model simulations, we analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of forest species diversity in subtropical China over the past 30 years. The study found that rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns significantly affected the composition and distribution of plant communities, leading to a decline in the population of some sensitive species, while the diversity of drought - and heat-tolerant species increased. In addition, climate change has increased the vulnerability of forest ecosystems, especially in regions where extreme weather events are frequent. The innovation of this study is that for the first time, multi-source data is combined with machine learning algorithms to build a high-precision species diversity prediction model, which provides a scientific basis for ecological conservation under future climate scenarios. Research has shown that enhanced forest management and conservation measures are critical to maintaining species diversity in subtropical forests. Future research should further focus on the interaction between climate change and human activities to develop more targeted ecological restoration strategies.

KEY WORDS：Climate Change; Subtropical Forest; Species Diversity

摘要 I

ABSTRACT II

第1章绪论 2

1.1 研究背景及意义 2

1.2 气候变化对亚热带森林物种多样性的研究现状 2

第2章气候变化对亚热带森林物种多样性的影响机制 4

2.1 温度升高对亚热带森林物种分布的驱动作用 4

2.2 降水模式变化对亚热带森林生态系统的影响 4

2.3 极端气候事件对亚热带森林物种多样性的冲击 5

第3章气候变化背景下亚热带森林物种多样性的适应策略 6

3.1 植物种群对气候变化的生理与行为适应机制 6