摘 要
随着全球人口结构的变化，中国正面临着日益严峻的人口老龄化问题。这一现象不仅对社会福利体系构成挑战，也对经济增长产生了深远影响。本研究旨在探讨人口老龄化对中国经济增长的具体影响，并提出相应的应对策略。通过综合运用时间序列分析、面板数据模型以及定性比较分析等方法，本研究系统地分析了1990年至2020年间中国各省份的经济增长与人口老龄化的关系。研究发现，人口老龄化显著减缓了劳动生产率的提升速度，进而抑制了经济的整体增长。此外，研究还发现，不同地区由于经济发展水平和政策实施的差异，其应对人口老龄化的效果也存在显著差异。在创新点方面，本研究首次将区域差异纳入分析框架，揭示了地方政府在应对人口老龄化中的关键作用。主要贡献在于提出了基于区域特征的差异化政策建议，如在经济发达地区加强科技创新和自动化应用，而在欠发达地区则应注重提高教育和健康服务质量。这些建议不仅有助于缓解人口老龄化带来的经济压力，也为其他面临类似问题的国家提供了有益的参考。
关键词：人口老龄化;经济增长;区域差异
Abstract
With the change of the global population structure, China is facing the increasingly severe problem of population aging. This phenomenon not only poses a challenge to the social welfare system, but also has a profound impact on economic growth. This study aimed to explore the specific impact of population aging on Chinese economic growth and propose corresponding coping strategies. By combining time series analysis, panel data model and qualitative comparative analysis, this study systematically analyzes the relationship between economic growth and population aging in Chinese provinces from 1990 to 2020. The study has found that an ageing population has significantly slowed the pace of labor productivity gains, which in turn has suppressed overall economic growth. In addition, the study also found that the effect of coping with population aging also varies significantly in different regions due to the differences in the economic development level and policy implementation. In terms of innovation points, this study is the first to incorporate regional differences into the analysis fr amework, revealing the key role of local governments in coping with the aging population. The main contribution lies in the proposal of differentiated policy suggestions based on regional characteristics, such as strengthening scientific and technological innovation and automation application in economically developed areas, while in less developed areas we should focus on improving the quality of education and health services. These recommendations can not only help to alleviate the economic pressure caused by the aging population, but also provide a useful reference for other countries facing similar problems.
Keywords：Aging population; economic growth; regional differences
目 录
引 言 1
第一章 人口老龄化的经济影响分析 2
1.1 劳动力市场变化与经济增长 2
1.2 消费结构变迁及其经济效应 2
1.3 储蓄与投资模式的转变 3
第二章 人口老龄化对产业结构的影响 4
2.1 传统产业调整的必要性 4
2.2 新兴产业的机遇与挑战 4
2.3 服务业的发展潜力分析 5
第三章 应对人口老龄化的政策措施研究 6
3.1 延迟退休政策的实施效果评估 6
3.2 生育政策的调整与优化建议 6
3.3 养老金制度的改革方向探讨 7
3.4 健康养老服务体系的建设策略 7
第四章 国际经验与中国实践的比较研究 9
4.1 发达国家应对老龄化的成功案例分析 9
4.2 发展中国家的应对策略比较研究 9
4.3 中国在老龄化问题上的独特挑战与机遇 10
4.4 国际合作在应对老龄化中的作用探讨 10
结 论 12
参考文献 13
致 谢 14
随着全球人口结构的变化，中国正面临着日益严峻的人口老龄化问题。这一现象不仅对社会福利体系构成挑战，也对经济增长产生了深远影响。本研究旨在探讨人口老龄化对中国经济增长的具体影响，并提出相应的应对策略。通过综合运用时间序列分析、面板数据模型以及定性比较分析等方法，本研究系统地分析了1990年至2020年间中国各省份的经济增长与人口老龄化的关系。研究发现，人口老龄化显著减缓了劳动生产率的提升速度，进而抑制了经济的整体增长。此外，研究还发现，不同地区由于经济发展水平和政策实施的差异，其应对人口老龄化的效果也存在显著差异。在创新点方面，本研究首次将区域差异纳入分析框架，揭示了地方政府在应对人口老龄化中的关键作用。主要贡献在于提出了基于区域特征的差异化政策建议，如在经济发达地区加强科技创新和自动化应用，而在欠发达地区则应注重提高教育和健康服务质量。这些建议不仅有助于缓解人口老龄化带来的经济压力，也为其他面临类似问题的国家提供了有益的参考。
关键词：人口老龄化;经济增长;区域差异
Abstract
With the change of the global population structure, China is facing the increasingly severe problem of population aging. This phenomenon not only poses a challenge to the social welfare system, but also has a profound impact on economic growth. This study aimed to explore the specific impact of population aging on Chinese economic growth and propose corresponding coping strategies. By combining time series analysis, panel data model and qualitative comparative analysis, this study systematically analyzes the relationship between economic growth and population aging in Chinese provinces from 1990 to 2020. The study has found that an ageing population has significantly slowed the pace of labor productivity gains, which in turn has suppressed overall economic growth. In addition, the study also found that the effect of coping with population aging also varies significantly in different regions due to the differences in the economic development level and policy implementation. In terms of innovation points, this study is the first to incorporate regional differences into the analysis fr amework, revealing the key role of local governments in coping with the aging population. The main contribution lies in the proposal of differentiated policy suggestions based on regional characteristics, such as strengthening scientific and technological innovation and automation application in economically developed areas, while in less developed areas we should focus on improving the quality of education and health services. These recommendations can not only help to alleviate the economic pressure caused by the aging population, but also provide a useful reference for other countries facing similar problems.
Keywords：Aging population; economic growth; regional differences
目 录
引 言 1
第一章 人口老龄化的经济影响分析 2
1.1 劳动力市场变化与经济增长 2
1.2 消费结构变迁及其经济效应 2
1.3 储蓄与投资模式的转变 3
第二章 人口老龄化对产业结构的影响 4
2.1 传统产业调整的必要性 4
2.2 新兴产业的机遇与挑战 4
2.3 服务业的发展潜力分析 5
第三章 应对人口老龄化的政策措施研究 6
3.1 延迟退休政策的实施效果评估 6
3.2 生育政策的调整与优化建议 6
3.3 养老金制度的改革方向探讨 7
3.4 健康养老服务体系的建设策略 7
第四章 国际经验与中国实践的比较研究 9
4.1 发达国家应对老龄化的成功案例分析 9
4.2 发展中国家的应对策略比较研究 9
4.3 中国在老龄化问题上的独特挑战与机遇 10
4.4 国际合作在应对老龄化中的作用探讨 10
结 论 12
参考文献 13
致 谢 14
