摘 要
在全球经济一体化背景下，汇率波动作为影响跨国并购财务风险的重要因素，已成为学术界和企业界关注的焦点。本研究旨在探讨汇率波动对跨国并购财务风险的具体影响机制，并提出针对性的应对策略。通过构建理论模型并结合实证分析方法，本文选取2010年至2022年间中国企业在海外并购的案例数据，运用面板数据分析技术，深入剖析汇率波动与财务风险之间的关系。研究结果表明，汇率波动显著增加了跨国并购中的估值不确定性、融资成本及现金流风险，且这种影响在不同行业和目标市场中存在异质性。此外，企业的风险管理能力、并购经验以及目标国货币的稳定性在一定程度上能够缓解汇率波动带来的负面影响。基于此，本文提出以下应对策略：一是加强汇率风险预测与管理，建立动态监控机制；二是优化融资结构，灵活运用金融衍生工具；三是注重目标市场的选择，优先考虑货币稳定性较高的国家和地区。本研究的创新点在于首次将行业异质性和目标国货币特征纳入分析框架，并通过实证检验验证了其调节作用，为相关理论提供了新的视角。同时，研究成果为企业制定跨国并购战略提供了实践指导，具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
关键词：汇率波动；跨国并购；财务风险；风险管理；行业异质性
Abstract
In the context of global economic integration, exchange rate fluctuations, as a critical factor influencing the financial risks of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M), have become a focal point for both academia and the business community. This study aims to explore the specific impact mechanisms of exchange rate fluctuations on the financial risks of cross-border M and proposes targeted coping strategies. By constructing a theoretical model and employing empirical analysis methods, this paper selects case data from Chinese enterprises' overseas M between 2010 and 2022, utilizing panel data analysis techniques to thoroughly examine the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and financial risks. The findings indicate that exchange rate fluctuations significantly increase valuation uncertainty, financing costs, and cash flow risks in cross-border M, with such impacts exhibiting heterogeneity across different industries and target markets. Moreover, firms' risk management capabilities, M experience, and the stability of the target country's currency can partially mitigate the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations. Based on these insights, the following strategies are proposed: first, enhancing exchange rate risk forecasting and management by establishing dynamic monitoring mechanisms; second, optimizing financing structures and flexibly applying financial derivatives; third, paying attention to target market selection by prioritizing countries and regions with higher currency stability. The innovation of this study lies in its inclusion of industry heterogeneity and characteristics of the target country's currency in the analytical fr amework for the first time, with empirical tests confirming their moderating roles, thus offering new perspectives to relevant theories. Meanwhile, the research findings provide practical guidance for enterprises in formulating cross-border M strategies, possessing significant theoretical value and practical implications.
Keywords: Exchange Rate Fluctuation; Cross-border Mergers And Acquisitions; Financial Risk; Risk Management; Industry Heterogeneity
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1汇率波动与跨国并购的背景分析 1
1.2研究汇率波动对企业财务风险的意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状综述 1
1.4本文研究方法与创新点 2
2汇率波动对跨国并购财务风险的影响机制 2
2.1跨国并购中的汇率风险类型 2
2.2汇率波动对并购成本的影响分析 3
2.3汇率波动对并购后整合风险的作用 3
2.4汇率波动对跨境资金流动的影响路径 3
2.5汇率波动与企业财务绩效的关系 4
3汇率波动下跨国并购财务风险管理挑战 4
3.1并购定价中的汇率不确定性问题 5
3.2跨国融资中的汇率风险评估 5
3.3并购支付方式与汇率波动的关联性 6
3.4汇率波动对税务筹划的影响分析 6
3.5不同市场环境下的汇率风险管理难点 7
4应对汇率波动的跨国并购财务风险策略 7
4.1基于套期保值的汇率风险管理工具 7
4.2构建动态汇率风险监控体系 8
4.3优化并购支付结构以降低汇率风险 8
4.4提升企业汇率风险管理能力的措施 9
4.5跨国并购中长期汇率风险应对方案 9
结论 10
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
