摘 要
人口老龄化是全球范围内不可逆转的人口趋势，对各国养老金体系的可持续性构成了严峻挑战。本研究以中国为例，探讨老龄化加剧背景下养老金体系面临的压力及应对策略。研究基于人口统计数据和经济模型，采用定量分析与定性评估相结合的方法，深入剖析了老龄化对养老金收支平衡、代际公平以及制度效率的影响。结果表明，随着老年人口比例持续上升，养老金支出增速显著高于收入增速，导致基金缺口不断扩大，并可能威胁到制度的长期存续。此外，现行养老金体系在区域分布和群体覆盖上存在不均衡问题，进一步加剧了制度运行的复杂性。针对上述问题，本文提出了一系列创新性对策，包括优化缴费与待遇调整机制、引入多元筹资渠道、加强精算管理以及推动延迟退休政策落地等措施。这些对策旨在通过提升制度灵活性和适应性，缓解老龄化带来的财务压力，同时兼顾公平与效率。本研究的主要贡献在于系统揭示了老龄化对养老金体系的具体影响路径，并提出了具有可操作性的政策建议，为相关决策提供了理论支持和实践参考。
关键词：人口老龄化；养老金体系；财务可持续性；代际公平；政策优化
Abstract
Population aging is an irreversible demographic trend worldwide, posing severe challenges to the sustainability of pension systems in various countries. This study takes China as a case to investigate the pressures faced by pension systems under the intensifying context of aging and to explore corresponding coping strategies. Based on population statistics and economic models, the research employs a combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative assessment to thoroughly examine the impacts of aging on the balance of pension revenues and expenditures, intergenerational equity, and institutional efficiency. The findings indicate that, with the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly individuals, the growth rate of pension expenditures significantly outpaces that of revenues, leading to an ever-expanding fund gap and potentially threatening the long-term viability of the system. Moreover, the existing pension system exhibits imbalances in regional distribution and group coverage, further complicating its operation. In response to these issues, this paper proposes a series of innovative measures, including optimizing contribution and benefit adjustment mechanisms, introducing diversified funding channels, enhancing actuarial management, and promoting the implementation of delayed retirement policies. These measures aim to enhance the flexibility and adaptability of the system, alleviate the financial pressure brought by aging, and balance fairness and efficiency. The primary contribution of this study lies in systematically revealing the specific pathways through which aging affects pension systems and offering actionable policy recommendations, thereby providing theoretical support and practical references for relevant decision-making.
Keywords: Population Aging; Pension System; Financial Sustainability; Intergenerational Equity; Policy Optimization
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1人口老龄化与养老金体系的背景分析 1
1.2研究意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状综述 1
1.4本文研究方法与创新点 2
2人口老龄化对养老金体系的影响机制 2
2.1人口老龄化的特征及其趋势 2
2.2养老金体系的基本构成与运行原理 3
2.3老龄化对养老金收支平衡的冲击 3
2.4老龄化对代际公平的潜在影响 3
2.5影响机制的理论模型构建 4
3当前养老金体系面临的挑战 4
3.1养老金资金缺口的现状分析 4
3.2制度设计中的结构性问题 5
3.3区域间养老金分配不均衡现象 6
3.4社会经济变化对养老金需求的影响 6
3.5挑战背后的深层次原因探讨 7
4应对人口老龄化的养老金体系改革对策 7
4.1提高养老金体系财务可持续性的路径 7
4.2推动延迟退休政策的可行性分析 8
4.3增强个人账户功能的设计方案 8
4.4多层次养老保障体系的构建思路 9
4.5政策实施中的风险防控与社会支持 9
结论 9
参考文献 11
致 谢 12
