摘 要
全球金融危机后，主要发达经济体实施了大规模量化宽松政策（Quantitative Easing, QE），这一政策对新兴市场资本流动产生了深远影响。本研究旨在探讨量化宽松政策如何通过利率、汇率及风险偏好等渠道改变新兴市场的资本流入与流出模式，并评估其潜在的经济金融后果。基于2008年至2022年的面板数据，本文采用动态面板模型（System GMM）和事件分析法，结合不同阶段量化宽松政策的实施与退出过程，系统性地分析了资本流动的规模、方向及其异质性特征。研究发现，量化宽松政策显著提升了新兴市场的资本流入，尤其是在短期投资领域，但同时也加剧了资本流动的波动性和脆弱性。此外，当量化宽松政策逐步退出时，资本外流压力明显增加，且这种效应在经济基本面较弱的新兴市场更为显著。本研究的创新点在于：一是将量化宽松政策的不同阶段（启动、加码、缩减和退出）纳入统一框架进行分析；二是区分不同类型资本流动（如FDI、证券投资和银行贷款）对政策冲击的差异化响应；三是引入宏观经济脆弱性指标，揭示其对资本流动敏感性的调节作用。研究表明，新兴市场应加强宏观审慎管理，优化资本流动监管框架，以应对量化宽松政策带来的外部冲击。这一研究为理解全球货币政策溢出效应提供了新的视角，并为新兴市场国家制定相关政策提供了理论依据和实证支持。
关键词：量化宽松政策；资本流动；新兴市场；宏观经济脆弱性；动态面板模型
Abstract
Following the global financial crisis, major advanced economies implemented large-scale quantitative easing (QE) policies, which had profound impacts on capital flows in emerging markets. This study aims to explore how QE policies alter the patterns of capital inflows and outflows in emerging markets through channels such as interest rates, exchange rates, and risk preferences, while evaluating their potential economic and financial consequences. Based on panel data from 2008 to 2022, this paper employs a dynamic panel model (System GMM) and event study methodology, integrating the implementation and tapering phases of QE policies, to systematically analyze the scale, direction, and heterogeneity of capital flows. The findings indicate that QE policies significantly increased capital inflows into emerging markets, particularly in short-term investment, but also exacerbated the volatility and fragility of capital flows. Moreover, when QE policies were gradually phased out, the pressure of capital outflows intensified, with this effect being more pronounced in emerging markets with weaker economic fundamentals. The innovations of this study lie in three aspects: first, incorporating different stages of QE policies (initiation, escalation, tapering, and exit) into a unified analytical fr amework; second, distinguishing the differentiated responses of various types of capital flows (such as FDI, portfolio investment, and bank loans) to policy shocks; and third, introducing macroeconomic vulnerability indicators to reveal their moderating role in the sensitivity of capital flows. The study suggests that emerging markets should enhance macroprudential management and optimize regulatory fr ameworks for capital flows to address external shocks brought by QE policies. This research provides new insights into understanding the spillover effects of global monetary policies and offers theoretical foundations and empirical support for policy formulation in emerging market countries.
Keywords: Quantitative Easing Policy; Capital Flow; Emerging Market; Macroeconomic Vulnerability; Dynamic Panel Model
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1全球量化宽松政策的背景分析 1
1.2研究意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状综述 1
1.4本文研究方法与创新点 2
2量化宽松政策的机制与传导路径 2
2.1全球量化宽松政策的核心机制 2
2.2货币政策传导至资本流动的理论框架 3
2.3量化宽松对国际资本流动的影响渠道 3
2.4新兴市场在资本流动中的特殊地位 4
2.5政策传导的异质性分析 4
3量化宽松对新兴市场资本流入的影响 5
3.1新兴市场资本流入的主要形式 5
3.2量化宽松政策下资本流入的规模变化 5
3.3资本流入结构的变化特征分析 6
3.4投资者行为与资本流入的关系 6
3.5案例分析：典型新兴市场的资本流入表现 7
4量化宽松对新兴市场资本流出的风险影响 7
4.1资本流出的触发因素分析 7
4.2量化宽松退出预期下的资本外流压力 8
4.3资本流出对新兴市场金融稳定的影响 8
4.4新兴市场应对资本流出的政策工具 9
4.5风险管理的经验总结与启示 9
结论 11
参考文献 12
致 谢 13
