摘 要
随着数字经济的快速发展，央行数字货币（CBDC）逐渐成为全球货币体系的重要创新方向，其对传统货币政策框架的影响日益凸显。本研究旨在探讨CBDC引入后对货币政策传导机制、政策工具有效性以及金融稳定性的潜在影响，并提出相应的政策框架重构建议。研究采用理论分析与实证模拟相结合的方法，基于动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE），构建了包含CBDC的扩展框架，以评估不同货币政策情景下的经济表现。结果表明，CBDC的发行可能增强货币政策的传导效率，特别是在负利率政策实施中突破零下限约束，但同时也可能削弱商业银行的中介功能，增加金融体系的脆弱性。此外，CBDC的广泛使用或将改变货币需求结构，要求中央银行调整传统的货币政策目标与工具设计。本研究的核心贡献在于提出了一个适应CBDC时代的新型货币政策框架，强调通过技术手段优化流动性管理，并加强宏观审慎政策与货币政策的协调配合。这一框架不仅为中央银行应对数字化转型提供了理论支持，也为未来国际货币合作奠定了基础，具有重要的实践意义和政策参考价值。
关键词：央行数字货币；货币政策传导；金融稳定性；DSGE模型；政策框架重构
Abstract
With the rapid development of the digital economy, central bank digital currency (CBDC) has gradually become a crucial direction for innovation in the global monetary system, and its impact on the traditional monetary policy fr amework is becoming increasingly significant. This study aims to investigate the potential effects of CBDC introduction on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the effectiveness of policy instruments, and financial stability, while proposing corresponding recommendations for restructuring the policy fr amework. By integrating theoretical analysis with empirical simulation, the study develops an extended fr amework based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, incorporating CBDC to evaluate economic performance under various monetary policy scenarios. The findings indicate that the issuance of CBDC may enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, particularly by overcoming the zero-lower-bound constraint in the implementation of negative interest rate policies. However, it may also weaken the intermediation function of commercial banks and increase the vulnerability of the financial system. Furthermore, the widespread use of CBDC could alter the structure of money demand, necessitating adjustments to traditional monetary policy ob jectives and instrument design by central banks. The core contribution of this research lies in proposing a new monetary policy fr amework adapted to the CBDC era, emphasizing the optimization of liquidity management through technological means and strengthening the coordination between macroprudential policies and monetary policies. This fr amework not only provides theoretical support for central banks in addressing digital transformation but also lays the groundwork for future international monetary cooperation, offering substantial practical significance and policy reference value.
Keywords: Central Bank Digital Currency; Monetary Policy Transmission; Financial Stability; Dsge Model; Policy fr amework Restructuring
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1央行数字货币与货币政策框架的背景分析 1
1.2研究央行数字货币对货币政策框架的意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状综述 1
1.4本文研究方法与技术路线 2
2央行数字货币对货币政策传导机制的影响 2
2.1货币政策传导的传统路径分析 2
2.2央行数字货币对利率传导效率的提升作用 3
2.3数字货币在信贷传导中的挑战与机遇 3
2.4新型传导机制下的政策工具创新 4
2.5传导机制变化对经济稳定的影响 4
3央行数字货币对货币政策独立性与协调性的重塑 5
3.1数字货币背景下货币政策独立性的新特征 5
3.2央行数字货币对跨境资本流动的调控能力 5
3.3数字货币对财政政策与货币政策协调的影响 6
3.4技术驱动下政策目标的重新定位 6
3.5政策协调框架的重构方向 7
4央行数字货币驱动下的货币政策框架优化路径 7
4.1数字货币时代货币政策框架的核心要素 7
4.2基于数字货币的新型货币政策工具设计 8
4.3数据驱动的货币政策决策机制改进 8
4.4风险管理与数字货币环境下的政策平衡 9
4.5构建适应数字货币的长期政策框架 9
结论 11
参考文献 12
致 谢 13
