摘 要
复杂机械系统的可靠性分析与优化设计是现代工程领域的重要研究课题，其在提升系统性能、延长使用寿命及降低维护成本方面具有重要意义。随着工业技术的快速发展，机械系统日益复杂化，传统可靠性评估方法已难以满足实际需求。本研究以复杂机械系统为对象，旨在通过引入先进的建模与优化技术，构建一套完整的可靠性分析与优化设计框架。研究首先基于故障模式与影响分析（FMEA）和蒙特卡罗模拟方法，建立了适用于复杂系统的多层级可靠性评估模型，能够准确量化系统各部件及其整体的失效概率。其次，结合遗传算法与响应面法，提出了一种高效的多目标优化策略，用于在满足可靠性约束的前提下实现系统性能的最大化与成本的最小化。通过将该方法应用于某大型工程机械的关键组件设计中，验证了其有效性和实用性。结果表明，所提方法能够在显著提高系统可靠性的同时，有效降低设计成本并缩短开发周期。此外，研究还创新性地引入了动态可靠性评估理念，考虑了系统运行环境的时变特性，从而提升了预测精度。总体而言，本研究不仅为复杂机械系统的可靠性分析提供了新思路，也为工程实践中的优化设计奠定了理论基础，具有重要的学术价值和应用前景。关键词：复杂机械系统；可靠性分析；多目标优化；故障模式与影响分析
Abstract
The reliability analysis and optimization design of complex mechanical systems are important research topics in modern engineering, playing a crucial role in enhancing system performance, extending service life, and reducing maintenance costs. With the rapid development of industrial technology, mechanical systems have become increasingly sophisticated, rendering traditional reliability evaluation methods inadequate for practical requirements. This study focuses on complex mechanical systems, aiming to establish a comprehensive fr amework for reliability analysis and optimization design by incorporating advanced modeling and optimization techniques. Initially, a multi-level reliability assessment model applicable to complex systems was developed based on Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Monte Carlo simulation, enabling precise quantification of failure probabilities for both individual components and the entire system. Subsequently, an efficient multi-ob jective optimization strategy was proposed by integrating genetic algorithms with response surface methodology, optimizing system performance maximization and cost minimization under reliability constraints. The effectiveness and practicality of this approach were validated through its application in the design of critical components of a large-scale engineering machine. Results indicate that the proposed method significantly improves system reliability while effectively reducing design costs and shortening development cycles. Furthermore, this study innovatively incorporates the concept of dynamic reliability assessment, accounting for the time-varying characteristics of system operating environments, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy. Overall, this research not only provides new insights into the reliability analysis of complex mechanical systems but also lays a theoretical foundation for optimization design in engineering practice, demonstrating significant academic value and promising application prospects..Key Words：Complex Mechanical System；Reliability Analysis；Multi-ob jective Optimization；Failure Mode And Effects Analysis
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 复杂机械系统可靠性研究背景 1
1.2 可靠性分析与优化设计的意义 1
1.3 国内外研究现状综述 2
1.4 本文研究方法与技术路线 2
第2章 复杂机械系统的可靠性建模 3
2.1 可靠性建模的基本理论 3
2.2 系统失效模式与影响分析 3
2.3 基于故障树的可靠性建模方法 4
2.4 动态环境下的可靠性模型扩展 4
2.5 案例分析：某复杂机械系统的建模 5
第3章 复杂机械系统的可靠性评估方法 6
3.1 可靠性评估的关键指标体系 6
3.2 基于蒙特卡洛模拟的评估方法 6
3.3 数据驱动的可靠性评估技术 7
3.4 不确定性条件下的可靠性评估策略 7
3.5 实验验证与结果分析 8
第4章 复杂机械系统的优化设计方法 9
4.1 优化设计的基本原则与框架 9
4.2 基于可靠性的多目标优化模型 9
4.3 遗传算法在优化设计中的应用 10
4.4 考虑成本约束的优化设计方法 10
4.5 工程实例：优化设计的实际效果 11
结 论 12
参考文献 13
致 谢 14
