摘要
量化宽松政策作为现代货币政策的重要工具，在全球金融危机后被广泛采用，其对全球经济的深远影响成为学术界和政策制定者关注的核心议题本研究以2008年全球金融危机为背景，系统分析了主要发达国家实施量化宽松政策的目的、机制及其在全球范围内的经济效应通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE）并结合时间序列数据分析，研究量化宽松政策对经济增长、通货膨胀、国际贸易以及资本流动的影响结果表明，量化宽松政策在短期内有效提振了国内经济活动，促进了就业增长和通胀回升，但长期实施可能导致资产价格泡沫和金融不稳定此外，该政策通过汇率渠道和利率渠道对新兴经济体产生显著溢出效应，加剧了资本流动的波动性本研究的创新点在于首次将全球金融周期纳入模型框架，揭示了量化宽松政策在全球金融体系中的传导路径及非对称影响研究表明，政策协调与宏观审慎管理是应对量化宽松政策潜在风险的关键策略，为未来国际货币政策合作提供了重要参考
关键词：量化宽松政策；全球经济效应；动态随机一般均衡模型；资本流动；政策协调
Abstract
Quantitative easing, as a critical tool of modern monetary policy, has been widely adopted in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, with its profound impact on the global economy becoming a core issue of concern for both academia and policymakers. This study, set against the backdrop of the 2008 global financial crisis, systematically analyzes the ob jectives, mechanisms, and global economic effects of quantitative easing implemented by major developed countries. By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and combining it with time-series data analysis, the study investigates the impacts of quantitative easing on economic growth, inflation, international trade, and capital flows. The results indicate that quantitative easing effectively stimulated domestic economic activity and promoted employment growth and inflation recovery in the short term, but prolonged implementation may lead to asset price bubbles and financial instability. Furthermore, this policy generates significant spillover effects on emerging economies through exchange rate and interest rate channels, exacerbating the volatility of capital flows. A key innovation of this study lies in its incorporation of the global financial cycle into the model fr amework, revealing the transmission paths and asymmetric impacts of quantitative easing within the global financial system. The findings suggest that policy coordination and macroprudential management are essential strategies for addressing the potential risks associated with quantitative easing, providing important references for future international monetary policy cooperation.
Keywords：Quantitative Easing Policy; Global Economic Effects; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model; Capital Flow; Policy Coordination
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
一、绪论 1
(一) 量化宽松政策的背景与意义 1
(二) 全球经济影响的研究现状 1
(三) 研究方法与分析框架 2
二、量化宽松政策的实施机制及其传导路径 2
(一) 货币政策工具的演变与发展 2
(二) 量化宽松政策的主要传导机制 3
(三) 实施效果的理论基础与评估标准 3
三、量化宽松政策对全球经济增长的影响 4
(一) 对发达国家经济增长的作用分析 4
(二) 对新兴经济体增长的间接影响 5
(三) 全球经济复苏中的角色定位 5
四、量化宽松政策的全球溢出效应与风险挑战 6
(一) 汇率波动与国际贸易格局的变化 6
(二) 资本流动对金融市场稳定性的冲击 6
(三) 长期依赖的风险与政策退出难题 7
结 论 8
参考文献 9
