摘 要
金融市场的全球化和复杂化使得金融风险的传导机制成为学术界和实务界关注的核心议题，尤其是在不同市场环境下，风险传导路径与效应存在显著差异。本研究以金融风险在不同市场环境下的传导机制为切入点，旨在揭示其动态特征及影响因素，并提出针对性的风险管理策略。研究采用多维度分析框架，结合时间序列模型、网络分析方法以及情景模拟技术，对全球主要金融市场中的风险传导过程进行系统性考察。通过对比正常市场环境与极端市场环境下的数据表现，发现金融风险的传导呈现出非线性、时变性和跨市场联动的特点。特别是在极端市场环境下，风险传导速度加快，强度增大，且更易形成系统性风险。
关键词：金融风险传导 市场环境分类 动态网络模型
Abstract
The globalization and complexity of financial market make the transmission mechanism of financial risks become the core issue of academic and practical circles. Especially in different market environments, there are significant differences in risk transmission paths and effects. This study takes the transmission mechanism of financial risk in different market environments as the entry point, and aims to reveal its dynamic characteristics and influencing factors, and puts forward targeted risk management strategies. The research adopts a multi-dimensional analysis fr amework, combining the time series model, network analysis method and scenario simulation technology, to conduct a systematic investigation of the risk transmission process in the major global financial markets. By comparing the data performance between the normal market environment and the extreme market environment, it is found that the transmission of financial risks shows the characteristics of non-linear, chronotropic and cross-market linkage. Especially in the extreme market environment, the risk transmission speed is accelerated, the intensity increases, and more likely to form systemic risk.
Keyword:Financial Risk Transmission Market Environment Classification Dynamic Network Model
目 录
引言 1
1金融风险传导的基本理论框架 1
1.1金融风险传导的定义与内涵 1
1.2不同市场环境下的风险特征 2
1.3风险传导的主要机制分析 2
1.4理论模型与研究假设 3
2市场波动对金融风险传导的影响 3
2.1市场波动的测量方法 3
2.2波动性与风险传导的关系 3
2.3不同市场环境下的波动效应 4
2.4实证案例：波动驱动的风险传导路径 4
3跨市场金融风险的传导机制研究 5
3.1跨市场的风险传导渠道 5
3.2资产价格联动与风险溢出 5
3.3金融机构在跨市场传导中的作用 6
3.4全球化背景下的风险传导特征 6
4政策干预对金融风险传导的影响 7
4.1政策工具与风险传导的调节机制 7
4.2监管政策对市场环境的作用 7
4.3不同政策情境下的传导效果分析 8
4.4案例分析：政策干预的实际影响 8
结论 8
参考文献 10
致谢 11
