摘 要
增值税改革作为中国税收体系的重要组成部分，对企业的税负水平和财务绩效产生深远影响。本研究基于2012-2022年中国A股上市公司的面板数据，采用双重差分法（DID）和倾向得分匹配法（PSM），系统分析了营改增政策对企业税负及财务绩效的影响机制与效果。研究发现，增值税改革显著降低了企业的实际税负率，特别是对于制造业和服务业企业，税负降幅更为明显。同时，增值税改革通过优化成本结构、提高运营效率，对企业盈利能力产生了积极影响，具体表现为毛利率、净利率等关键财务指标的改善。此外，研究还发现增值税改革促进了企业投资行为的调整，尤其是增加了固定资产和技术研发的投资比例。创新点在于首次将增值税改革与企业微观财务数据相结合，从多维度考察了税制变化对企业经营的综合影响，并引入中介效应模型验证了增值税改革通过降低税负间接提升企业财务绩效的作用路径。研究结果为评估增值税改革成效提供了实证依据，也为进一步完善税收政策提供了理论支持。
关键词：增值税改革 企业税负 财务绩效
Abstract
Value-added tax (VAT) reform, as a critical component of China's tax system, has profound implications for corporate tax burdens and financial performance. This study employs panel data from A-share listed companies in China spanning 2012 to 2022, utilizing the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method and Propensity Score Matching (PSM), to systematically analyze the impact mechanisms and effects of the Business Tax to VAT reform on corporate tax burdens and financial performance. The findings indicate that VAT reform significantly reduced the actual tax burden rate of enterprises, particularly for manufacturing and service sector firms, where the reduction in tax burden was more pronounced. Moreover, VAT reform positively influenced corporate profitability by optimizing cost structures and enhancing operational efficiency, evidenced by improvements in key financial indicators such as gross margin and net profit margin. Additionally, the study reveals that VAT reform facilitated adjustments in corporate investment behavior, notably increasing the proportion of investments in fixed assets and technology research and development. An innovation of this research lies in its pioneering integration of VAT reform with micro-level corporate financial data, examining the comprehensive impact of tax system changes on business operations from multiple dimensions, and introducing a mediation effect model to verify the indirect pathway through which VAT reform enhances corporate financial performance by reducing tax burdens. The results provide empirical evidence for evaluating the effectiveness of VAT reform and offer theoretical support for further refining tax policies.
Keyword:Value-Added Tax Reform Enterprise Tax Burden Financial Performance
目 录
引言 1
1增值税改革的政策背景与理论基础 1
1.1增值税改革历程回顾 1
1.2改革的理论依据分析 2
1.3政策目标与预期效果 2
2增值税改革对企业税负的影响 3
2.1税负变化的量化分析 3
2.2行业间税负差异比较 3
2.3企业规模对税负影响 4
3增值税改革对财务绩效的具体影响 4
3.1营收与利润水平变化 4
3.2成本结构优化效应 5
3.3现金流状况改善分析 6
4改革实施效果评估与对策建议 6
4.1整体实施效果评价 6
4.2存在问题剖析 7
4.3政策完善建议 7
结论 8
参考文献 9
致谢 10
