摘 要
随着可再生能源的广泛应用和分布式发电技术的发展，微电网作为智能电网的重要组成部分，在提高能源利用效率、促进清洁能源消纳方面发挥着关键作用。然而，微电网运行中存在间歇性电源出力波动大、负荷预测不确定性等问题，给能量管理带来挑战。为此，提出基于模型预测控制的微电网能量管理策略，旨在优化微电网内各单元的能量分配与调度，以实现经济性和可靠性的平衡。该方法通过建立包含风光发电预测模型、储能系统动态特性模型及负荷需求响应模型在内的综合预测模型，结合滚动优化机制，对未来一段时间内的运行状态进行预估并制定最优控制序列。研究结果表明，所提策略能够有效降低微电网运行成本，提高可再生能源利用率，增强系统的灵活性与鲁棒性。与传统控制方法相比，创新性地引入了多时间尺度协同优化框架，实现了日前、日内以及实时三个层次的能量管理协调统一，显著提升了微电网应对不确定性的能力，为构建更加智能高效的微电网提供了理论依据和技术支持。
关键词：微电网能量管理 模型预测控制 可再生能源利用
Abstract
With the widespread application of renewable energy and the development of distributed generation technologies, microgrids, as an essential component of smart grids, play a crucial role in improving energy efficiency and promoting the accommodation of clean energy. However, challenges in energy management arise from the significant fluctuations in intermittent power generation and uncertainties in load forecasting during microgrid operations. To address these issues, this study proposes an energy management strategy for microgrids based on model predictive control (MPC), aiming to optimize the energy allocation and scheduling of various units within the microgrid to achieve a balance between economy and reliability. This approach establishes a comprehensive predictive model that incorporates photovoltaic and wind power generation forecasting models, dynamic characteristic models of energy storage systems, and load demand response models, combined with a rolling optimization mechanism, to predict operational states over a future time horizon and formulate optimal control sequences. Research findings indicate that the proposed strategy effectively reduces microgrid operating costs, enhances renewable energy utilization, and increases system flexibility and robustness. Compared with traditional control methods, this study innovatively introduces a multi-time-scaleoptimization fr amework, achieving coordinated energy management at day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time levels, which significantly improves the microgrid's capability to cope with uncertainties and provides theoretical foundations and technical support for constructing smarter and more efficient microgrids.
Keyword:Microgrid Energy Management Model Predictive Control Renewable Energy Utilization
目 录
引言 1
1微电网能量管理需求分析 1
1.1微电网运行特点与挑战 1
1.2能量管理目标设定 2
1.3模型预测控制优势 2
2模型预测控制理论基础 3
2.1模型预测控制原理 3
2.2关键算法解析 3
2.3约束条件处理方法 4
3基于MPC的微电网优化调度 4
3.1电源出力预测建模 4
3.2负荷需求响应策略 5
3.3多目标优化求解方法 5
4策略实施与效果评估 6
4.1实时控制与调整机制 6
4.2系统稳定性分析 6
4.3经济效益与环境效益评价 7
结论 7
参考文献 9
致谢 10
