摘 要
小微企业作为我国经济的重要组成部分，在促进经济增长、推动就业和创新方面发挥着不可替代的作用，但其在发展过程中面临着诸多财务风险，构建有效的财务风险预警机制具有重要意义。本研究旨在构建适合小微企业的财务风险预警机制，以提高其应对财务风险的能力。基于此，通过文献研究法梳理国内外相关研究成果，明确现有研究的不足之处；运用问卷调查法与实地访谈法获取小微企业财务状况一手资料，深入了解小微企业财务风险特征；采用因子分析法确定影响小微企业财务风险的关键因素，进而构建包含偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力等多维度的财务风险预警指标体系，并利用Logistic回归模型进行实证检验。结果表明，所构建的预警机制能够较准确地识别小微企业的财务风险状况，为小微企业防范财务风险提供决策依据。该研究创新性地将多种方法相结合，针对小微企业特点构建预警机制，弥补了以往研究中对小微企业特殊性考虑不足的问题，为小微企业财务风险管理提供了新思路，有助于提升小微企业的可持续发展能力。
关键词：小微企业财务风险 财务风险预警机制 因子分析法
Abstract
Micro and small enterprises, as an integral part of China’s economy, play an indispensable role in promoting economic growth, driving employment, and fostering innovation. However, these enterprises face numerous financial risks during their development, making the construction of an effective financial risk early warning mechanism crucial. This study aims to develop a financial risk early warning mechanism tailored for micro and small enterprises to enhance their capability in dealing with financial risks. By reviewing relevant research both domestically and internationally through literature studies, this paper identifies the shortcomings of existing research. It then employs survey methods and field interviews to obtain firsthand data on the financial conditions of micro and small enterprises, thereby gaining a deep understanding of the characteristics of financial risks faced by these enterprises. Factor analysis is used to determine the key factors influencing financial risks, leading to the establishment of a multi-dimensional financial risk early warning indicator system that includes debt repayment capacity, profitability, and operational efficiency. The Logistic regression model is utilized for empirical testing. The results indicate that the constructed early warning mechanism can accurately identify the financial risk status of micro and small enterprises, providing a basis for decision-making in financial risk prevention. Innovatively combining multiple methods, this study constructs a warning mechanism specifically addressing the characteristics of micro and small enterprises, compensating for the inadequacy in previous research regarding the particularities of these enterprises. This provides new insights into financial risk management for micro and small enterprises and contributes to enhancing their sustainable development capabilities.
Keyword:Financial Risk Of Small And Micro Enterprises Financial Risk Early Warning Mechanism Factor Analysis Method
目 录
引言 1
1小微企业财务风险特征分析 1
1.1财务风险的定义与分类 1
1.2小微企业的特殊性 2
1.3主要财务风险表现形式 2
2现有预警机制评析 3
2.1国内外研究现状 3
2.2现有预警模型综述 3
2.3存在的问题与不足 4
3预警指标体系构建 4
3.1指标选择原则 5
3.2关键财务指标确定 5
3.3非财务指标考量 6
4预警机制实施路径 6
4.1技术实现方案 6
4.2组织保障措施 7
4.3实施效果评估 7
结论 8
参考文献 9
致谢 10
小微企业作为我国经济的重要组成部分，在促进经济增长、推动就业和创新方面发挥着不可替代的作用，但其在发展过程中面临着诸多财务风险，构建有效的财务风险预警机制具有重要意义。本研究旨在构建适合小微企业的财务风险预警机制，以提高其应对财务风险的能力。基于此，通过文献研究法梳理国内外相关研究成果，明确现有研究的不足之处；运用问卷调查法与实地访谈法获取小微企业财务状况一手资料，深入了解小微企业财务风险特征；采用因子分析法确定影响小微企业财务风险的关键因素，进而构建包含偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力等多维度的财务风险预警指标体系，并利用Logistic回归模型进行实证检验。结果表明，所构建的预警机制能够较准确地识别小微企业的财务风险状况，为小微企业防范财务风险提供决策依据。该研究创新性地将多种方法相结合，针对小微企业特点构建预警机制，弥补了以往研究中对小微企业特殊性考虑不足的问题，为小微企业财务风险管理提供了新思路，有助于提升小微企业的可持续发展能力。
关键词：小微企业财务风险 财务风险预警机制 因子分析法
Abstract
Micro and small enterprises, as an integral part of China’s economy, play an indispensable role in promoting economic growth, driving employment, and fostering innovation. However, these enterprises face numerous financial risks during their development, making the construction of an effective financial risk early warning mechanism crucial. This study aims to develop a financial risk early warning mechanism tailored for micro and small enterprises to enhance their capability in dealing with financial risks. By reviewing relevant research both domestically and internationally through literature studies, this paper identifies the shortcomings of existing research. It then employs survey methods and field interviews to obtain firsthand data on the financial conditions of micro and small enterprises, thereby gaining a deep understanding of the characteristics of financial risks faced by these enterprises. Factor analysis is used to determine the key factors influencing financial risks, leading to the establishment of a multi-dimensional financial risk early warning indicator system that includes debt repayment capacity, profitability, and operational efficiency. The Logistic regression model is utilized for empirical testing. The results indicate that the constructed early warning mechanism can accurately identify the financial risk status of micro and small enterprises, providing a basis for decision-making in financial risk prevention. Innovatively combining multiple methods, this study constructs a warning mechanism specifically addressing the characteristics of micro and small enterprises, compensating for the inadequacy in previous research regarding the particularities of these enterprises. This provides new insights into financial risk management for micro and small enterprises and contributes to enhancing their sustainable development capabilities.
Keyword:Financial Risk Of Small And Micro Enterprises Financial Risk Early Warning Mechanism Factor Analysis Method
目 录
引言 1
1小微企业财务风险特征分析 1
1.1财务风险的定义与分类 1
1.2小微企业的特殊性 2
1.3主要财务风险表现形式 2
2现有预警机制评析 3
2.1国内外研究现状 3
2.2现有预警模型综述 3
2.3存在的问题与不足 4
3预警指标体系构建 4
3.1指标选择原则 5
3.2关键财务指标确定 5
3.3非财务指标考量 6
4预警机制实施路径 6
4.1技术实现方案 6
4.2组织保障措施 7
4.3实施效果评估 7
结论 8
参考文献 9
致谢 10
