摘 要
环境不确定性对财务预算准确性的影响日益受到学术界和实务界的关注。在当前复杂多变的经济环境下，企业面临的外部环境波动加剧，如何确保财务预算的有效性成为企业管理的重要课题。本研究旨在探讨环境不确定性与财务预算准确性之间的关系，通过构建理论模型并结合实证分析，揭示二者之间的内在联系及作用机制。研究选取2010 - 2020年间沪深两市A股上市公司为样本，运用多元回归分析方法，从宏观经济环境、行业竞争态势、政策法规变化等多维度衡量环境不确定性，并以预算偏差率作为财务预算准确性的衡量指标。研究发现，环境不确定性总体上会降低财务预算准确性，其中宏观经济环境波动和行业竞争态势变化对预算准确性影响尤为显著；而良好的公司治理结构能够在一定程度上缓解环境不确定性带来的负面影响。
关键词：环境不确定性 财务预算准确性 宏观经济环境
Abstract
The impact of environmental uncertainty on the accuracy of financial budgets is increasingly attracting attention from the academic and practical communities. In the current complex and changeable economic environment, the external environment of enterprises is increased, how to ensure the effectiveness of financial budget has become an important topic of enterprise management. This study aims to explore the relationship between environmental uncertainty and financial budget accuracy, and to reveal the internal connection and action mechanism between them by constructing a theoretical model and combining with empirical analysis. The research selects a-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010 to 2020 as the sample, and uses multiple regression analysis method to measure environmental uncertainty from the multiple dimensions of macroeconomic environment, industry competition situation, policy and regulatory changes, and other dimensions, and the budget deviation rate is taken as the measure of the accuracy of financial budget. The study found that environmental uncertainty generally reduces the accuracy of financial budget, especially the fluctuation of macroeconomic environment and industry competition situation have a significant impact on the budget accuracy; and a good corporate governance structure can alleviate the negative impact of environmental uncertainty to some extent.
Keyword:Environmental Uncertainty Financial Budget Accuracy Macroeconomic Environment
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状 1
1.3研究方法概述 2
2环境不确定性的维度分析 2
2.1宏观经济环境不确定性 2
2.2行业竞争环境不确定性 3
2.3政策法规环境不确定性 3
2.4技术变革环境不确定性 4
3财务预算准确性的衡量与影响因素 4
3.1财务预算准确性衡量指标 5
3.2内部管理对预算准确性的影响 5
3.3外部信息获取对预算准确性的作用 6
3.4风险评估机制的重要性 6
4环境不确定性与财务预算准确性的关系 7
4.1不确定性对预算编制过程的影响 7
4.2不确定性对预算执行效果的影响 7
4.3不确定性下预算调整的必要性 8
4.4应对不确定性的策略建议 8
结论 9
参考文献 10
致谢 11
环境不确定性对财务预算准确性的影响日益受到学术界和实务界的关注。在当前复杂多变的经济环境下，企业面临的外部环境波动加剧，如何确保财务预算的有效性成为企业管理的重要课题。本研究旨在探讨环境不确定性与财务预算准确性之间的关系，通过构建理论模型并结合实证分析，揭示二者之间的内在联系及作用机制。研究选取2010 - 2020年间沪深两市A股上市公司为样本，运用多元回归分析方法，从宏观经济环境、行业竞争态势、政策法规变化等多维度衡量环境不确定性，并以预算偏差率作为财务预算准确性的衡量指标。研究发现，环境不确定性总体上会降低财务预算准确性，其中宏观经济环境波动和行业竞争态势变化对预算准确性影响尤为显著；而良好的公司治理结构能够在一定程度上缓解环境不确定性带来的负面影响。
关键词：环境不确定性 财务预算准确性 宏观经济环境
Abstract
The impact of environmental uncertainty on the accuracy of financial budgets is increasingly attracting attention from the academic and practical communities. In the current complex and changeable economic environment, the external environment of enterprises is increased, how to ensure the effectiveness of financial budget has become an important topic of enterprise management. This study aims to explore the relationship between environmental uncertainty and financial budget accuracy, and to reveal the internal connection and action mechanism between them by constructing a theoretical model and combining with empirical analysis. The research selects a-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010 to 2020 as the sample, and uses multiple regression analysis method to measure environmental uncertainty from the multiple dimensions of macroeconomic environment, industry competition situation, policy and regulatory changes, and other dimensions, and the budget deviation rate is taken as the measure of the accuracy of financial budget. The study found that environmental uncertainty generally reduces the accuracy of financial budget, especially the fluctuation of macroeconomic environment and industry competition situation have a significant impact on the budget accuracy; and a good corporate governance structure can alleviate the negative impact of environmental uncertainty to some extent.
Keyword:Environmental Uncertainty Financial Budget Accuracy Macroeconomic Environment
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景与意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状 1
1.3研究方法概述 2
2环境不确定性的维度分析 2
2.1宏观经济环境不确定性 2
2.2行业竞争环境不确定性 3
2.3政策法规环境不确定性 3
2.4技术变革环境不确定性 4
3财务预算准确性的衡量与影响因素 4
3.1财务预算准确性衡量指标 5
3.2内部管理对预算准确性的影响 5
3.3外部信息获取对预算准确性的作用 6
3.4风险评估机制的重要性 6
4环境不确定性与财务预算准确性的关系 7
4.1不确定性对预算编制过程的影响 7
4.2不确定性对预算执行效果的影响 7
4.3不确定性下预算调整的必要性 8
4.4应对不确定性的策略建议 8
结论 9
参考文献 10
致谢 11
