摘 要
城市化进程中，城市扩张与耕地流失矛盾凸显，影响区域可持续发展。本研究以中国东部沿海地区为对象，利用2000-2020年土地利用数据，采用空间自相关分析、耦合协调度模型和地理探测器等方法，分析了城市扩张与耕地流失的时空特征及其耦合关系。结果显示，城市用地年均增长3.2%，耕地年均减少1.5%，两者呈负相关。城市扩张热点与耕地流失严重区域主要在沿海城市群重合。耦合协调度分析表明，长三角地区耦合度最高。经济发展、人口密度和交通可达性是主要驱动因素。研究构建了多尺度、多维度分析框架，揭示了空间交互作用机制，为优化国土空间布局、城乡协调发展提供科学依据，对制定土地管理政策和推进新型城镇化建设具有参考价值。
关键词：城市扩张；耕地流失；耦合协调度
ANALYSIS OF THE COUPLING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBAN EXPANSION AND CULTIVATED LAND LOSS
ABSTRACT
In the process of urbanization, the contradiction between urban expansion and cultivated land loss is prominent, which affects the regional sustainable development. In this study, the spatial and temporal characteristics of urban expansion and farmland loss using land use data from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed by spatial autocorrelation analysis, coupled coordination degree model and geographic detector. The results showed that the annual growth of urban land was 3.2% and the annual decrease of cultivated land was 1.5%, which was negatively related. The hot spots of urban expansion and the areas with serious cultivated land loss mainly overlap in the coastal urban agglomerations. The coupling coordination degree analysis shows that the Yangtze River Delta region has the highest coupling degree. Economic development, population density, and transport accessibility are the main drivers. The research has constructed a multi-scale and multi-dimensional analysis fr amework, reveals the spatial interaction mechanism, provides scientific basis for optimizing the spatial layout of land and the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and has reference value for formulating land management policies and promoting the construction of new urbanization.
KEY WORDS：Urban sprawl; Cultivated land loss; Coupling coordination
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景与意义 1
1.2 研究方法与技术路线 1
第2章 相关理论概述 2
2.1 城市扩张的时空格局分析 2
2.2 耕地流失的空间分布特征 2
2.3 城市扩张与耕地流失的时空耦合关系 3
第3章 城市扩张对耕地流失的作用机制 4
3.1 经济发展驱动下的用地需求分析 4
3.2 政策导向对土地利用的影响 4
3.3 人口集聚与土地资源竞争关系 5
第4章 城市扩张与耕地流失的协调优化策略 6
4.1 基于生态安全的土地利用规划建议 6
4.2 城乡统筹发展的空间优化路径 6
4.3 耕地保护与城市发展的平衡机制构建 7
第5章 结论 8
参考文献 9
致 谢 10
