摘 要
在现代企业财务管理中，现金流预测是确保企业稳健运营的关键环节，本文详细阐述了现金流预测的含义、关键要素以及常见的现金流预测方法，为后续分析提供了理论基础。在基于现金流预测的营运资金管理部分，本文分析了现金流预测与营运资金的关系，并探讨了如何通过现金流预测优化应收账款、应付账款和存货管理，以提高企业的资金使用效率。营运资金需求规划策略部分是本文的核心，提出了基于预测的营运资金需求分析方法，包括资金需求的识别与分类、时间框架分析和优先级排序。此外，本文还探讨了营运资金需求的筹资策略，如短期融资工具的选择、长期融资策略的规划以及融资成本与风险管理。同时，本文还讨论了营运资金需求的优化管理，包括现金流的集中管理、动态管理和应急计划，以及营运资金需求规划的技术支持，如信息技术、预测软件与工具的选择和大数据分析的应用。最后，本文总结了研究的主要发现，并提出了针对性的管理策略建议。
关键词：现金流预测；营运资金管理；资金需求；财务风险
Abstract
In modern enterprise financial management, cash flow forecasting is the key link to ensure the steady operation of enterprises. This paper elaborates the meaning, key elements and common cash flow forecasting methods of cash flow forecasting, which provides a theoretical basis for subsequent analysis. In the part of working capital management based on cash flow forecast, this paper analyzes the relationship between cash flow forecast and working capital, and discusses how to optimize the management of accounts receivable, accounts payable and inventory through cash flow forecast to improve the efficiency of capital use. The strategy part of working capital demand planning is the core of this paper, which puts forward the method of working capital demand analysis based on forecast, including the identification and classification of capital demand, time fr ame analysis and priority ranking. In addition, this paper also discusses the financing strategies for working capital needs, such as the choice of short-term financing tools, the planning of long-term financing strategies, and the financing cost and risk management. At the same time, this paper also discusses the optimal management of working capital requirements, including centralized cash flow management, dynamic management and contingency planning, as well as technical support for working capital requirements planning, such as information technology, the selection of forecasting software and tools, and the application of big data analysis. Finally, this paper summarizes the main findings of the study and puts forward some suggestions for management strategies.
Key Words: Cash flow forecast; Working capital management; Capital requirements; Financial risk
目 录
第一章 绪 论 1
1.1 研究背景及意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 1
1.3 研究目的 2
第二章 理解现金流预测 3
2.1 现金流预测的含义 3
2.2 现金流预测的关键要素 3
2.3 常见的现金流预测方法 4
第三章 基于现金流预测的营运资金管理 5
3.1 现金流预测与营运资金的关系 5
3.2 通过预测优化应收账款管理 5
3.3 应付账款管理与现金流预测 6
第四章 营运资金需求规划策略 7
4.1 基于预测的营运资金需求分析 7
4.2 营运资金需求的筹资策略 7
4.3 营运资金需求的优化管理 8
4.4 营运资金需求规划的技术支持 9
结论 10
致 谢 11
参考文献 12
