农电输电系统运行负荷算法模型预测精确度研究
摘 要
重点阐述了目前我国农业电网负荷预测的几种常见的算法模型，并结合某省新宁县的农村电网负荷预报实例，分析比较了各种预测方法的准确性，并在此基础上提出了一种最适用于农电系统的负荷预报方法，以期为农电系统的负荷预报提供依据。在理论和方法方面，与随机波动率模型及其他时间变量模型相比，该模型的参数和随机性更小，更适合于工程实践。同时，文中所使用的方法及所建立的数学模型可为此类问题的定量化、分类预报提供借鉴。
关键词：农电系统 负荷预测 线性组合 灰色预测 人工神经网络
Abstract
This paper focuses on several common algorithmic models for load forecasting of agricultural power grid in China at present, and analyzes and compares the accuracy of various forecasting methods based on the load forecasting example of rural power grid in Xinning County, a province. On this basis, a load forecasting method that is most suitable for agricultural power system is proposed, in order to provide a basis for the load forecasting of agricultural power system. In terms of theory and method, compared with random volatility model and other time variable models, the model has smaller parameters and randomness, and is more suitable for engineering practice. At the same time, the methods and mathematical models used in this paper can provide reference for the quantitative and classified prediction of such problems.
Key words:Rural power system load forecasting linear combination grey forecasting artificial neural network
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
1 前言 - 1 -
2 农电负荷预测模型分析 - 1 -
2.1 外推预测模型 - 1 -
2.2 灰色预测模型 - 2 -
2.3 人工神经网络模型 - 3 -
2.4 线性组合预测 - 4 -
3 算例和分析 - 6 -
3.1 对原始数据所做的处理 - 6 -
3.2 算例与分析 - 6 -
3.3 实验结果分析 - 8 -
4 结论 - 9 -
参考文献 - 10 -
致 谢 - 11 -
