摘 要
随着全球经济格局的深刻调整和国内经济高质量发展的迫切需求，产业结构升级已成为推动区域经济转型与社会进步的重要引擎。在此背景下，本研究旨在探讨产业结构升级对区域就业结构优化的驱动效应及其内在机制，以期为实现经济与就业的协同发展提供理论支持与政策参考。研究基于2010年至2020年间中国30个省份的面板数据，采用动态面板模型（System GMM）进行实证分析，并引入中介效应模型检验人力资本和技术水平在二者关系中的作用。结果显示，产业结构升级显著促进了区域就业结构的优化，具体表现为高技能就业岗位比例的提升和低技能就业岗位的逐步减少。进一步分析表明，人力资本积累和技术进步在这一过程中发挥了重要的中介作用，分别解释了总效应的45%和38%。
关键词：产业结构升级 就业结构优化 人力资本
Abstract
In the context of profound adjustments in the global economic landscape and the urgent need for high-quality development domestically, industrial structure upgrading has become a crucial engine driving regional economic transformation and social progress. Against this backdrop, this study aims to explore the driving effect and internal mechanisms of industrial structure upgrading on the optimization of regional employment structures, with the goal of providing theoretical support and policy references for achieving coordinated development between the economy and employment. The research is based on panel data from 30 provinces in China between 2010 and 2020, using a dynamic panel model (System GMM) for empirical analysis, and introducing an instrumental variable model to test the role of human capital and technological levels in this relationship. The results show that industrial structure upgrading significantly promotes the optimization of regional employment structures, specifically manifested in an increase in high-skilled job positions and a gradual decrease in low-skilled job positions. Further analysis indicates that the accumulation of human capital and technological progress play important mediating roles in this process, explaining 45% and 38% of the total effect, respectively.
Keyword:Industrial Structure Upgrading Employment Structure Optimization Human Capital
目 录
1绪论 1
1.1产业结构升级与就业结构优化的研究背景 1
1.2研究意义 1
1.3国内外研究现状综述 1
1.4本文研究方法与技术路线 2
2产业结构升级对就业结构优化的理论基础 2
2.1产业结构升级的核心概念界定 2
2.2就业结构优化的基本内涵分析 3
2.3产业结构与就业结构的相互关系 3
2.4驱动效应的理论框架构建 3
2.5相关理论在区域发展中的应用 4
3产业结构升级对区域就业结构优化的实证分析 4
3.1区域产业结构升级的现状考察 4
3.2就业结构优化的动态特征分析 5
3.3驱动效应的量化指标体系设计 5
3.4实证数据来源与处理方法 6
3.5模型构建与结果解读 6
4推动区域就业结构优化的政策建议 7
4.1基于产业升级的就业结构调整策略 7
4.2区域差异化政策的设计思路 7
4.3提升劳动力素质以适应产业升级需求 8
4.4政府与市场协同作用机制探讨 8
4.5未来研究方向展望 8
结论 9
参考文献 10
致谢 11
